未戴头盔摩托车手与车辆碰撞时伤害严重程度分析  

Analysis of the injury severity of nonhelmeted motorcyclists colliding with vehicles

作　　者：杨雨薇 王晨竹 王卫[1] 陈峻[1] Muhammad Ijaz Yang Yuwei;Wang Chenzhu;Wang Wei;Chen Jun;Muhammad Ijaz(School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京210096 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,成都610031

出　　处：《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》2023年第2期107-114,共8页东南大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52131203,51768063,51868068).

摘　　要：为了研究不同因素对未戴头盔的摩托车手与不同类型车辆碰撞事故严重性程度的影响,基于2019年巴基斯坦碰撞事故数据的分析,将事故按照相撞车型划分为汽车、公交车、卡车、自行车、摩托车和人力车6种类型,每种类型事故进一步划分为未受伤、轻伤、重伤和死亡4个严重程度等级.从摩托车驾驶员、道路、天气、事故原因和时间5个方面选取了20个变量,对不同类型事故分别建立了6个考虑影响因素异质性的随机参数Logit模型.采用似然比检验和样本外预测方法证实了不同Logit模型之间具有不可转移性.结果表明,所选变量均对事故严重程度具有显著影响,其中摩托车驾驶员的性别、年龄、车道数量、车速对事故严重程度的影响最大.该研究可以为当地管理者的策略制定提供参考依据,从而降低未戴头盔的摩托车手与其他不同车辆的碰撞事故严重程度.To investigate the impact of different factors on the severity of accidents involving nonhelmeted motorcycle riders and different types of vehicles,the 2019 Pakistan traffic accident data was analyzed.The accidents were classified into six types according to the types of vehicles involved:car,bus,truck,bike,motorcycle and rickshaw.Each type of accident was further divided into four severity levels:no injury,minor injuries,major injuries,and fatalities.Twenty variables were selected from five aspects:motorcyclist demographics,roadway,environment,crash,and temporal.Also,six random parameter logit models that considered the heterogeneity of influencing factors were established for each type of accident.The likelihood ratio test and out-of-sample prediction method were used to confirm the non-transferability between different logit models.The results show that all selected variables have significant effects on the severity of accidents;the gender of motorcycle drivers,age,number of lanes,and speeding have the greatest impact.This study can provide a reference for local policymakers to formulate strategies,thereby reducing the severity of collisions between helmetless motorcycle riders and other vehicles.

关 键 词：道路安全 伤害严重程度 随机参数logit模型 摩托车碰撞 样本外预测 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]