长江中下游地区越冬水鸟潜在适宜栖息地分布预估  

Estimated Distribution of Potentially Suitable Habitats for Wintering Waterbirds in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

作　　者：刘小燕 周轶尘 张增信[1] 张佳敏 朱斌[1] 田佳西 邱健 Liu Xiaoyan;Zhou Yichen;Zhang Zengxin;Zhang Jiamin;Zhu Bin;Tian Jiaxi;Qiu Jian(Co-Innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]南方现代林业协同创新中心(南京林业大学),南京210037

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2023年第8期90-97,126,共9页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC0409004);徐州市科技项目(KC21148);江苏高校优势学科建设工程项目(PAPD)。

摘　　要：长江中下游地区是“东亚—澳大利西亚”迁徙路线上最重要的水鸟越冬地之一,气候变化和人类活动显著改变了该地区水鸟的栖息地。以数量较多的白额雁(Anser albifrons)、小天鹅(Cygnus columbianus)以及濒危物种东方白鹳(Ciconia boyciana)和极危物种白鹤(Grus leucogeranus)4种水鸟为代表,采用MaxEnt生态位模型和BCC-CSM2-MR全球气候模式,预估未来不同气候情景下长江中下游典型越冬水鸟的潜在适宜栖息地变化。结果表明:在1970—2000年,白额雁、白鹤、东方白鹳和小天鹅在长江中下游地区的高适生区主要位于长江干流沿岸、鄱阳湖、洞庭湖及太湖等湿地区,其中,小天鹅的潜在适宜栖息地面积分布最广,白鹤的潜在适宜栖息地面积分布最少。海拔、坡度、植被及气候因素是影响越冬水鸟分布的重要环境变量,海拔对白额雁和白鹤的影响最大,坡度对东方白鹳和小天鹅也是较为重要的影响因子。除地形和植被因子外,气温是影响白额雁的主要环境变量,而降水则是影响白鹤、东方白鹳和小天鹅的主要环境变量。在SSP2-4.5中排放情景下(SSP2-4.5代表至2100年辐射强迫稳定在4.5 W/m^(2)),越冬水鸟的总适生区面积最大,且濒危物种东方白鹳和极危物种白鹤的高适生区面积最大;在SSP5-8.5高排放情景下越冬水鸟的总适生区面积最少(SSP5-8.5代表至2100年辐射强迫达到8.5 W/m^(2)),而数量相对较多的白额雁和小天鹅的高适生区面积分布最广。总体看,SSP2-4.5中排放情景是对所有越冬水鸟最有利的,未来越冬水鸟的中、高适生区均有向东部鄱阳湖流域及长江口一带扩散的趋势,且低适生区面积将持续上升。虽然研究结果显示未来气候变化对越冬水鸟生存相对有利,但面对全球气候变暖的生态预警,应加大气候变化对水鸟栖息地的研究和保护力度。The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are one of the most important wintering grounds for waterbirds on the East Asia-Australasia Flyway,and significant changes in habitat have occurred due to climate change and human activities.We used the MaxEnt ecological niche model and the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model to estimate the potential changes in suitable wintering habitats for four representative waterbird species,including the abundant Greater Anser albifrons,Cygnus columbianus,and the endangered Ciconia boyciana and Grus leucogeranus under different climate scenarios in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.From 1970 to 2000,the high-suitability areas for these waterbird species were mainly located in wetlands along the Yangtze River,Poyang Lake,Dongting Lake,and Taihu Lake,with the potential suitable habitat area being the widest for Cygnus columbianus,and the narrowest for Grus leucogeranus.Altitude,slope,vegetation,and climate factors were important environmental variables affecting the distribution of wintering waterbirds.Altitude had the greatest impact on Greater Anser albifrons and Grus leucogeranus,while slope was also an important factor for Ciconia boyciana and Cygnus columbianus.In addition to terrain and vegetation factors,temperature was the main environmental variable affecting the Greater Anser albifrons,while precipitation was the main environmental variable affecting the Grus leucogeranus,Ciconia boyciana,and Cygnus columbianus.Under the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario,the total suitable area for wintering waterbirds was the largest,with the highest-suitability area being the largest for the endangered Ciconia boyciana and the critically endangered Grus leucogeranus;and under the SSP5-8.5 high-emission scenario,the total suitable area for wintering waterbirds was the smallest,with the high-suitability area being the widest for the abundant Greater Anser albifrons and Cygnus columbianus.Overall,the SSP2-4.5 emission scenario is the most favorable for all wintering waterbirds,

关 键 词：越冬水鸟 适宜栖息地分布 气候变化 MaxEnt模型 长江中下游地区 

分 类 号：S718[农业科学—林学]