基于外网静态等值与无迹变换法的互联电网概率潮流计算  

Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation for Interconnected Power Grid Based on External Network Static Equivalent and Unscented Transformation Method

作　　者：唐文静 唐俊杰[1] 林星宇 彭穗[1,2] 许丹 谢开贵 TANG Wenjing;TANG Junjie;LIN Xingyu;PENG Sui;XU Dan;XIE Kaigui(State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment&System Security and New Technology(Chongqing University),Chongqing 400044,China;Grid Planning and Research Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510699,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China)

机构地区：[1]输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆市400044 [2]广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心,广东省广州市510699 [3]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市100192

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2023年第10期117-127,共11页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52177071);国家杰出青年科学基金资助项目(51725701)。

摘　　要：随着电力系统的发展,为计及新能源发电和负荷波动等不确定性因素的影响,须对互联电网进行概率潮流分析,而电网规模的不断扩大会显著增加相应的计算负担。因此,为提高互联电网概率潮流的计算效率,提出了一种基于外网静态等值方法与无迹变换法相结合的互联电网概率潮流计算方法。首先,采用无迹变换法生成用于边界处等值参数概率建模的样本点集,提出基于多运行点的外网静态等值方法,即每个样本点基于其改进直流潮流计算得到的结果获得等值参数,以建立等值后内网输入随机变量的概率模型。然后,通过该概率模型再次采用无迹变换法生成新的样本点集,从而进行等值后内网的概率潮流计算。最后,在多个测试系统证明了所提方法的准确性与速度优势。该方法借助概率等值技术同时降低了概率潮流计算中输入随机变量的维数与系统规模,从而减少了其分析所需的确定性潮流计算次数及其单次计算时间,实现了该应用在计算方面的双重降维。With the development of power systems,probabilistic power flow analysis of interconnected power grids is necessary to take into account the influence of uncertain factors such as renewable energy generation and load fluctuations,and the continuous expansion of power grids will significantly increase the corresponding computation burden.Therefore,in order to improve the calculation efficiency of the probability power flow for interconnected power grids,a probabilistic power flow calculation method for interconnected power grid is proposed based on external network static equivalent method and unscented transformation method.Firstly,the unscented transformation method is used to generate the set of sample points for the probabilistic modeling of equivalent parameters at the boundary,and the external network static equivalent method based on multiple operation points is proposed,that is,each sample point obtains equivalent parameters based on the results of its improved DC power flow calculation,to establish the probability model of the input random variables of the internal network after equivalence.Then,a new set of sample points is generated by the unscented transformation method through the probability model,so as to calculate the probabilistic power flow of the internal network after equivalence.Finally,the accuracy and speed advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated on multiple test systems.The proposed method reduces the dimension of input random variables and the system size in probabilistic power flow calculation with the help of the probability equivalent technology,thus reducing the number of deterministic power flow calculations and the single calculation time required for its analysis,and realizing the double dimension reduction in the calculation of this application.

关 键 词：互联电网 概率潮流计算 外网静态等值方法 无迹变换法 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]