COVID-19传染病动力学研究数学模型概述  

An Overview of Mathematical Models for the Dynamics of COVID-19 Infectious Diseases

作　　者：李卓宇 夏必胜 马乐荣[1] LI Zhuo-yu;XIA Bi-sheng;MA Le-rong(School of Mathematics and Computer Science,Yan'an University,Yan'an Shaanxi 716000,China)

机构地区：[1]延安大学数学与计算机科学学院,陕西延安716000

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2023年第5期1-7,共7页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61866038,61962059);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划,科技厅面上项目(2021JM-418);陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(21JK0988,21JK0975,21JK0994);榆林市科技计划项目(CXY-2020-067);延安市科技局项目(203010096);延安大学校级项目(205040306);延安大学研究生教育创新项目(YCX2020099)。

摘　　要：介绍了SI、SIR、SIRS、SEIR模型及基本再生数R0的求解,结合传染病动力学数学模型在新冠肺炎传染病(COVID-19)的发展现状,简述了SEIR传染病模型和多种变体SEIR传染病模型在新冠疫情仿真预测中的应用情况,整理其关注的因素及分析方法,对比两类模型的相似研究点和不同点,得出现阶段国内仍需加强防预管理措施,以及在时间管理和防预措施强度对疫情传播的影响、疫苗资源的最优分配策略和环境领域中某因素对传染病指标的影响等方向值得探讨和研究。The SI,SIR,SIRS,SEIR models and the solution of the basic regeneration number R 0 were intro-duced.Combined with the development status of the infectious disease dynamics mathematical model in COVID-19,the application of the SEIR infectious disease model and various variants of the SEIR infectious disease model in the simulation and prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic was briefly described.The factors concerned and analysis meth-ods were summarized,and the similarities and differences between the two models were compared.It was concluded that prevention management measures should be strengthened in China at the present stage.The impact of time man-agement and the intensity of prevention measures on the spread of the epidemic,and the optimal allocation strategy of vaccine resources,the influence of some factors in the environmental field on infectious disease indicators should be discussed and studied.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎 数学模型 变体 传染病 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]