基于改进SEIR模型的网络舆情传播研究  

Research on Network Public Opinion Communication Based on Improved SERI Model

作　　者：梁冉 徐雅斌[1,2] LIANG Ran;XU Ya-bin(Beijing Key Laboratory of Internet Culture and Digital Dissemination Research,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 100101,China;School of Computer Science and Technology,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京信息科技大学网络文化与数字传播北京市重点实验室,北京100101 [2]北京信息科技大学计算机学院,北京100101

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2023年第5期333-340,共8页Computer Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61672101);网络文化与数字传播北京市重点实验室开放课题(ICDDXN004);信息网络安全公安部重点实验室开放课题(C18601)。

摘　　要：为了探究网络舆情传播过程中的影响因素,准确的掌握社交网络中舆情传播的内在规律。在传染病模型SEIR的基础上提出了动态情感冲突理论,基于BA无标度网络探究了多层级用户之间的情感冲突、情感共鸣现象对于舆情交叉传播的影响,并考虑到个体记忆效应以及遗忘效应的差异,将提出的干扰因子引入艾宾浩斯遗忘曲线,构建了情感因素与改进后遗忘机制共存的EF-SEIR舆情传播模型。仿真结果表明,提出的EF-SEIR模型充分考虑了舆情传播主体间情感的相互转化、交叉感染现象,引入改进后的艾宾浩斯遗忘机制可以有效描述遗忘与遗忘干扰因子双重刺激下舆情传播的适度波动。研究结果为更好地分析舆情的传播机理提供了新思路,对舆情管控具有重要意义和实用价值。In order to explore the influencing factors in the dissemination of public opinion on the Internet,and accurately grasp the internal laws of public opinion dissemination in social networks,the dynamic emotional conflict theory is proposed on the basis of the infectious disease model SEIR and BA scale-free network,which explores the influence of the emotional conflict and emotional resonance phenomenon of multi-level users on the cross-spreading of public opinion,and considering the differences in individual memory effects and forgetting effects,the proposed in-terference factor is introduced into the Ebbinghaus forgetting curve,and an EF-SEIR public opinion communication model in which emotional factors coexist with the improved forgetting mechanism is constructed.The simulation exper-iment results show that the EF-SEIR model proposed in this paper fully considers the mutual transformation and cross-infection phenomenon between the subjects of public opinion transmission.The introduction of the improved Ebbing-haus forgetting mechanism can effectively describe public opinion communication under the dual stimulation of forget-ting and forgetting interference factors.Moderate fluctuations in the spread.The research results provide new ideas for better analyzing the communication mechanism of public opinion and have important significance and practical value for the management and control of public opinion.

关 键 词：舆情传播 传播动力学 动态情绪感染 遗忘机制 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]