RCEP背景下基于扩展贸易引力模型的贸易影响因素与发展潜力研究——以宁波与日韩贸易为例  

Research on Influencing Factors and Development Potential of Trade in the Context of RCEP Based on Extended Trade Gravity Model:The Case of Ningbo's Trade with Japan and South Korea

作　　者：朱秀敏 Zhu Xiumin(School of Yangming Humanities,Ningbo Childhood Education College,Ningbo 315336,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波幼儿师范高等专科学校阳明人文学院,浙江宁波315336

出　　处：《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》2023年第3期27-33,共7页Journal of Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce

基　　金：宁波市哲学社会科学规划项目“RCEP背景下宁波深化与日韩贸易的路径研究——基于扩展贸易引力模型的实证分析”(G2022-2-73)。

摘　　要：在RCEP生效的大背景下,更高质量地深化与日韩的贸易对宁波乃至中国高效利用国际市场构建强大而有韧性的双循环新发展格局具有重要意义。选取2002—2021年宁波与日韩贸易的面板数据,分析贸易现状,构建扩展贸易引力模型,实证研究其贸易影响因素和发展潜力。研究表明:宁波与日韩的贸易发展滞后于宁波总体外贸发展,双方贸易发展潜力大;影响双方贸易的最主要因素包括经济规模、消费价格指数、地理距离等。宁波应紧抓RCEP红利,发挥产业优势;发展新兴产业,升级产业结构;优化贸易和投资环境,进一步释放贸易潜力,深化与日韩的贸易合作。In the context of RCEP coming into effect,deepening high-quality trade with Japan and South Korea is of great significance for Ningbo and even China to efficiently use the international market to build a new development pattern of strong and resilient dual circulation.The panel data of Ningbo's trade with Japan and South Korea from 2002 to 2021 are used to analyze the current trade status,construct an extended trade gravity model,and empirically study the trade influencing factors and development potential.The results show that the development of Ningbo's trade with Japan and South Korea lags behind Ningbo's overall foreign trade development,and there is great potential for trade development between the two sides.The main factors affecting bilateral trade include economic scale,consumer price index,and geographical distance.Ningbo'should take advantage of RCEP and give full play to its industrial advantages,develop emerging industries and upgrade its industrial structure,improve its trade and investment environment,further unleash its trade potential,and deepen its trade cooperation with Japan and South Korea.

关 键 词：贸易潜力 贸易引力模型 RCEP 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易]