基于GeoSOS-FLUS模型的乌鲁木齐主城区扩张情景模拟分析  

Scenario Simulation Analysis of Urumqi Urban Sprawl based on GeoSOS-FLUS Model

作　　者：姜展鹏 包安明[2] 李艳红[1] JIANG Zhanpeng;BAO Anming;LI Yanhong(College of Geography Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所、荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《遥感技术与应用》2023年第2期332-340,共9页Remote Sensing Technology and Application

基　　金：NJ新增水资源战略研究项目(403-1005-YBN-FT6I-8);王宽诚教育基金会(GJTD-2020-14)。

摘　　要：乌鲁木齐市作为新疆首府、“一带一路”中的中亚区域经济中心,其土地资源的合理利用、城市形态的健康发展则显得尤为重要。本研究首先基于乌鲁木齐主城区1990~2018年遥感影像解译出的土地利用分类对其土地利用时空演变情况加以分析,1990~2018年乌鲁木齐主城区急剧扩张,2010年以来交通网络铺设完善,主城区快速扩张,周遭耕地、林地、草地等萎缩95.12 km^(2)、6.49 km^(2)、52.37 km^(2),重心呈现出向东与向北扩张趋势,主城区农用与绿化面积萎缩,无法兼顾经济与生态效益协调可持续发展。接着,遴选自然与社会经济等影响主城区扩张的驱动因素,结合乌鲁木齐主城区扩张历史特点设计第一产业优先、第二三产业优先、生态优先情景,利用GeoSOSFLUS模型对不同情景下的主城区扩张情景进行模拟预测,研究发现第二三产业优先情景下建设用地明显增加1142.94 km^(2);生态优先情景下生态效益高的林地、草地、水域面积显著增加281.59、651.38、7.29 km^(2);第一产业优先情景下,建设用地、耕地等地类面积扩张617.14、611.71 km^(2)。上述对乌鲁木齐的城市扩张加以多情景预测推演,不仅有利于重新审视乌鲁木齐城市扩张的合理性,也可以为其未来城市合理、科学的规划与发展指明方向。As the capital of Xinjiang and central Asia regional economic center in"One Belt and One Road",Urumqi is particularly important for its rational use of land resources and healthy development of urban form.Firstly,this study analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution of the land use based on the land use classification of the main urban area of Urumqi from 1990 to 2018.The main urban area of Urumqi expanded rapidly from 1990 to 2018.Since 2010,the transportation network has been laid and the main urban area has expanded rapidly.Surrounding farmland,forest land and grassland have shrunk by 95.12 km^(2),6.49 km^(2) and 52.37 km^(2).The center of gravity has been expanding eastward and northward.Then,the driving factors affecting the expansion of the main urban area,such as natural,social and economic factors,were selected.Combined with the historical characteristics of the expansion of the main urban area of Urumqi,the scenarios of the priority of the primary industry,the priority of the secondary and tertiary industries and the priority of ecology were designed.The GeoSOS-FLUS model was used to simulate and predict the scenarios of the expansion of the main urban area under different scenarios.The study found that the construction land increased by 1142.94 km^(2) under the priority scenario of secondary and tertiary industries.Under the ecological priority scenario,the areas of forest land,grassland and water area with high ecological benefits were significantly increased by 281.59 km^(2),651.38 km^(2) and 7.29 km^(2).Under the primary priority scenario,the area of construction land and cultivated land expanded by 617.14 km^(2) and 611.71 km^(2).It is not only helpful to re-examine the rationality of Urumqi's urban expansion,but also to point out the direction of its rational and scientific urban planning and development in the future.

关 键 词：GeoSOS-FLUS模型 乌鲁木齐 城市扩张 情景模拟 

分 类 号：TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]