基于孤石全生命周期的危险性评价  

Risk Assessment Based on the Full Life Cycle of Boulders

作　　者：黄厚赞 陈凌伟[1,2] 刘伟 张庆华[1,2] 刘羊 HUANG Hou-zan;CHEN Ling-wei;LIU Wei;ZHANG Qing-hua;LIU Yang(Guangzhou Urban Planning&Design Survey Research Institute,Guangzhou 510060,China;Guangdong Enterprise Key Laboratory for Urban Sensing,Monitoring and Early Warning,Guangzhou 510060,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,广州510060 [2]广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室,广州510060

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2023年第17期7247-7256,共10页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：广东省重点领域研发计划(2020B0101130009);广东省城市感知与监测预警企业重点实验室基金(2020B121202019);广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院科技基金(RDI2220204031,RDI2220204125)。

摘　　要：近年来,孤石滚落灾害越发受到关注,而对其危险性定量评价的相关研究较少。一方面,孤石具有数量多、规模大、形状不一的特点,对孤石群的稳定性判定是一个问题;另一方面,对孤石影响区域的危险性评价是难点。因此以广州市白云山原始森林公园为研究对象,对此区域开展孤石危险性评价。通过孤石稳定性定性定量综合判断+失稳孤石威胁范围精准划分的方法,考虑多评价因子对研究区危险性进行综合评价。利用熵权法计算各评价因子的权重,基于高精度数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM)、地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)软件和岩石崩落分析(rockfall analysis,RA)软件对研究区危险性等级进行划分,将白云山原始森林公园滚石危险范围划分为4个等级:极高危险区、高危险区、中危险区和低危险区。研究成果提出了一套可为其他区域孤石滚落灾害危险区划参考的系统性评价方法。In recent years,the rockfall disaster has received more and more attention,while there are few related studies on the quantitative evaluation of its risk.On the one hand,solitary stones have the characteristics of large quantity,large scale and different shapes,and the determination of the stability of solitary stone groups is a problem.On the other hand,it is difficult to assess the risk of areas affected by boulders.Therefore,taking Baiyun Mountain Primitive Forest Park in Guangzhou as the research object,the risk assessment of boulders in this area was carried out.The risk of the study area was comprehensively evaluated by considering multiple evaluation factors through qualitative and quantitative comprehensive judgment of boulder stability and precise division of the threat range of unstable boulders.The weight of each evaluation factor was calculated using the entropy weight method.Based on the high-precision digital elevation model(DEM),geographic information system(GIS)software,and rockfall analysis(RA)software,the risk level of the study area was divided into four levels:extremely high risk area,high risk area Medium and low hazard areas.The research results propose a systematic evaluation method that can be used as a reference for the risk zoning of boulder rolling hazards in other regions.

关 键 词：孤石 稳定性 危险性评价 定量评价 RA软件 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]