基于矩估计理论的高校突发事件应急管理能力综合评价  

Comprehensive Evaluation of Emergency Management Ability of College Based on Moment Estimation Theory

作　　者：李玉飞 刘晓云[2] 刘洋[2] 梅艳兰 LI Yufei;LIU Xiaoyun;LIU Yang;MEI Yanlan(School of Machinery and Automation,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430081,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学机械自动化学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2023年第3期357-363,共7页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究项目一般项目(22Y031);教育部高校思想政治工作队伍培训研修中心(郑州大学)2022年度思想政治工作队伍专项开放课题(ZZUKFYB202213);教育部人文社会科学研究项目一般项目(21YJC630099).

摘　　要：针对高校突发事件应急管理能力评价影响因素的不确定性和单一赋权法具有的片面性和局限性问题,基于矩估计理论,采用层次分析法、序关系分析法、熵权法和离差最大化法,建立高校突发事件应急管理能力评价的组合赋权法。结合可拓理论,构建基于矩估计理论的高校突发事件应急管理能力综合评价模型,并将其应用到实际高校突发事件应急管理能力评价中。结果表明:高校突发事件应急管理能力评价的组合赋权法综合考虑了经验因素和评价指标的固有属性,权重计算结果更加科学合理,优于单一主观赋权或客观赋权的结果,证明了高校突发事件应急管理能力综合评价模型的有效性。本研究可为高校突发事件应急管理提供理论支撑和实际指导。In view of the uncertainty of the influencing factors of the evaluation of college emergency management ability and the one-sidedness and limitations of the single weighting method,based on the moment estimation theory,a combined weighting method for the evaluation of emergency management ability of colleges was established by using analytic hierarchy process,order relationship analysis,entropy weight method and deviation maximization method.Combined with extension theory,a comprehensive evaluation model of college emergency management ability based on moment estimation theory was constructed and applied to the evaluation of college emergency management ability.The results show that the combined weighting method for the evaluation of emergency management ability of colleges comprehensively considers the experience factor and inherent attributes of evaluation indicators,the weight calculation result is more scientific and reasonable,and its result is better than the single subjective weighting or objective weighting result,which proves the effectiveness of the comprehensive evaluation model of college emergency management ability.The research provides theoretical support and practical guidance for college emergency management.

关 键 词：高校突发事件 可拓理论 矩估计理论 应急管理能力 综合评价模型 

分 类 号：G647[文化科学—高等教育学]