区域科技金融协调发展时空分异及预测研究  

Research on Spatial-temporal Differentiation and Prediction of Coordinated Development of Regional Science,Technology and Finance

作　　者：杨青[1] 马雅洁 曹兰娟 吴恒[1] YANG Qing;MA Yajie;CAO Lanjuan;WU Heng(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]浙江大学宁波理工学院机电与能源工程学院,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（信息与管理工程版）》2023年第3期480-487,共8页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology：Information & Management Engineering

基　　金：科学技术部2021—2035年国家中长期科技发展规划重大问题研究项目(2019-8).

摘　　要：国内外历史经验表明,科技金融是支持科技创新的重要手段,科技金融发展水平是新时代创新驱动战略的重点之一。基于相关-变异系数法对科技金融的评价指标体系进行筛选,并针对2011—2020年30个省市数据进行指标适配关系分析,建立耦合协调发展模型对区域科技金融发展进行综合评价,并综合对比分析趋势外推法与灰色GM(1,1)预测模型,择优选取灰色GM(1,1)模型预测各区域耦合协调发展趋势。研究表明:科技金融指标具有产业导向;全国科技与金融融合层次有差异,东部偏高,中部稳步有机遇,西部易提升,东北部短板明显;由东至西耦合协调梯次弱化,提出强化科技金融顶层设计和监管,因地制宜精准施策,采取区域联动互助发展模式,助力区域高效协调发展。The historical experience at home and abroad shows that science and technology finance is an important means to support scientific and technological innovation,and the development level of science and technology finance is one of the priorities of innovation driven strategy in the new era.Based on the correlation and variation coefficient method,the evaluation index system of science and technology finance was screened,and the index adaptation relationship was analyzed according to the data of 30 provincial-level regions from 2011 to 2020.A coupling and coordinated development model was established to comprehensively evaluate the development of regional science and technology finance,and the trend extrapolation method and grey GM(1,1)prediction model were comprehensively compared and analyzed,and the grey GM(1,1)model was selected to predict the coupling and coordinated development trend of each region.The research shows that the indicators of science and technology finance are industry oriented;There are differences in the level of integration of science and technology and finance across the country.The eastern part is high,the central part has steady opportunities,the western part is easy to upgrade,and the northeast has obvious weaknesses;the coupling and coordination cascade from east to west is weakened.It is proposed to strengthen the top-level design and supervision of science and technology finance,implement precise policies according to local conditions,and adopt the regional linkage and mutual assistance development model to help the efficient and coordinated development of the region.

关 键 词：科技金融 相关-变异系数法 耦合协调 灰色预测 适配关系 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F127