基于DEMATEL-ISM的中国石油进口安全影响因素分析  

Analysis of factors influencing China’s oil import security based on DEMATEL-ISM

作　　者：张益畅 何沙[1] 庞敏[1] ZHANG Yichang;HE Sha;PANG Min(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University//Sichuan Oil and Natural Gas Development Research Center)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院·四川石油天然气发展研究中心

出　　处：《油气储运》2023年第6期713-720,共8页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“绿色发展理念下能源互联网的资源配置效应与发展”,20XJY006。

摘　　要：为促进中国石油进口安全战略规划工作,采用文献编码、决策试验和评价实验法-解释结构模型(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretative Structural Modelling,DEMATEL-ISM)对中国石油进口安全影响因素展开研究。基于能源安全4A概念,阐述了中国石油进口在供应、运输及价格上的现状和挑战,建立石油进口安全分析框架,并耦合文献编码方法获取影响中国石油进口安全的因素,形成编码统计表的各级范畴,利用DEMATEL-ISM分析各因素间的相互关系和层次结构,并提出相应政策建议。研究表明:石油产出情况、石油运输能力等表层因素直接影响石油进口安全,经济发展阶段、能源消费结构等底层因素是影响石油进口安全的根本原因,石油政策协议、进口通道格局等浅层因素和进口来源结构、应急体系建设等深层因素是影响石油进口安全的关键节点,上述因素应予以重点关注。研究成果可为石油企业和政府部门开展石油进口工作提供理论依据和方法支撑。(图5,表3,参22)In order to promote the strategic planning for the oil import security of China,relevant influencing factors were studied by integrating document coding with the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretative Structural Modeling(DEMATELISM).The current situation and challenges of oil import of China were introduced based on the 4A definition of energy security in terms of supply,transportation and price.Meanwhile,the analytical framework of oil import security was established and coupled with document coding method to define the factors that influence the oil import security of China,thus forming the category of code statistics at different levels.Besides,the interrelation and hierarchical structure of factors were analyzed by DEMATEL-ISM,and suggestions were put forward on the policies.The results show that oil import security is influenced directly by superficial factors,including the production and transportation capacity of oil,and fundamentally by underlying factors,such as the stage of economic development and the structure of energy consumption.In addition,the shallow and deep factors,including the oil policy agreement,the import channel pattern,the import source structure and the construction of emergency system,are the critical points of oil import security.Therefore,special attention should be paid to the above-mentioned factors.Generally,the research results could provide theoretical and methodological support for the oil import of petroleum companies and governments.(5 Figures,3 Tables,22 References)

关 键 词：石油进口安全 影响因素 框架 文献编码 决策试验和评价实验法 解释结构模型 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61