山东省生猪价格周期性波动及稳定机制研究  

Cyclical Fluctuation and Stability Mechanism of Pig Price in Shandong Province

作　　者：申罗莎 范玉峰[2] 张园园[1] Shen Luosha;Fan Yufeng;Zhang Yuanyuan(College of Economics and Management,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai'an 271001,Shandong;Shandong Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Ji nan 250100,Shandong)

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学经济管理学院,山东泰安271001 [2]山东省农业科学院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《农业展望》2023年第5期9-13,共5页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：山东省生猪产业技术体系(SDAIT-08-11);山东农业良种工程(2021LZGC013)。

摘　　要：“猪贵伤民,猪贱伤农”。猪肉作为中国居民的必要性消费商品,猪价的大幅波动不仅会影响消费者的肉制品消费,也会影响生猪产业的健康持续发展。在系统介绍山东省生猪价格周期性波动情况的基础上,分析归纳了生猪价格周期性波动特征,认为猪周期持续时间在延长、波动幅度在加大、价格上行期在延长、价格下行期在缩短、利润波动幅度在加大、价格季节性波动在减弱,之后从供求关系、养殖成本、疫情等偶发因素方面分析了生猪价格波动的原因。最后,从调整生猪养殖结构、加强生物安全防控、建立生猪期货市场、完善生猪生产逆向调控政策等措施等方面,提出了缓解生猪价格波动、全面促进生猪产业持续发展的对策建议。"Expensive pigs hurt people,cheap pigs hurt farmers".Pork is a necessary consumption commodity for Chinese residents.The sharp fluctuation of pig prices not only affects the consumption of meat products for consumers,but also affects the healthy development of pig industry.Based on systematically introducing the cyclical fluctuation of pig price in Shandong province,the characteristics of cyclical fluctuation of pig price were summarized,and it was believed that the duration of the period is long and the volatility is increasing,the upward period of price is longer,the downward period of price is shorter,the profit volatility is increasing,and the price saving volatility is weaker.Then,the causes of pig price fluctuation were analyzed from the aspects of supply and demand,breeding cost,pandemic situation and other accidental factors.Finally,countermeasures and suggestions to alleviate the fluctuation of pig price and comprehensively promote the healthy and steady development of pig industry were put forward from adjusting the raw breeding structure,strengthening biological safety prevention and control,establishing pig futures market,perfecting the reverse regulation policy of pig production and so on.

关 键 词：生猪价格 供求 养殖成本 政策调控 周期性波动 稳定机制 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]