基于层次分析模型的COVID-2019的传播与评价研究  

Research on communication and evaluation of COVID-2019 based on AHP model

作　　者：王力平 王冲[1] 韩金羽 马硕 WANG Li-ping;WANG Chong;HAN Jin-yu;MA Shuo(School of Mathematical Sciences,Daqing Normal University,Heilongjiang Daqing 163712,China)

机构地区：[1]大庆师范学院数学科学学院,黑龙江大庆163712

出　　处：《齐齐哈尔大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期89-94,共6页Journal of Qiqihar University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：黑龙江省大学生创新项目(S202210235039);大庆市科技指导项目(zd-2020-20)。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒对各国的经济、人民的生活、生命财产造成了巨大影响。预测和评估新冠病毒的传播风险、传播指数、基本再生数、达峰时间、峰值、防控策略的时效性和有效性等流行病学的关键指标对突发流行传染病起着重要作用。通过建立数学模型对中国、美国等5个国家疫情发展初期状况予以分析评价,对疫情的规模进行定量分析,对疫情发展状况作出较切合实际且理性的判断分析和评价,为突发性传染病防控提供参考。The novel coronavirus has a huge impact on the economy,people's lives,lives and property of all countries.Predicting and evaluating the transmission risk,transmission index,basic reproduction number,peak time,peak value,timeliness and effectiveness of prevention and control strategies of COVID-19 and other key epidemiological indicators play an important role in the outbreak of infectious diseases.This article analyzes and evaluates the initial stage of epidemic development in five countries,including China and the United States,by establishing mathematical models,quantitatively analyzes the scale of the epidemic,and makes more realistic and rational judgments,analysis,and evaluation of the development of the epidemic,providing reference for the prevention and control of sudden infectious diseases.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 突发传染病 层次分析模型 

分 类 号：O175.12[理学—数学]