基于Copula函数的赣江中下游洪水遭遇组合分析  

Analysis of Flood Encounter Combination in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Ganjiang River Based on Copula Function

作　　者：刘章君 张静文 温天福 成静清 LIU Zhangjun;ZHANG Jingwen;WEN Tianfu;CHENG Jingqing(Jiangxi Academy of Water Science and Engineering,Nanchang 330029,Jiangxi,China;Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment of Poyang Lake,Nanchang 330029,Jiangxi,China;Jiangxi Provincial Technology Innovation Center of Ecological Water Engineering of Poyang Lake Basin,Nanchang 330029,Jiangxi,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水利科学院,江西南昌330029 [2]江西省鄱阳湖水资源与环境重点实验室,江西南昌330029 [3]江西省鄱阳湖流域生态水利技术创新中心,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《水力发电》2023年第7期24-29,共6页Water Power

基　　金：江西省主要学科学术和技术带头人培养计划青年人才项目(20212BCJ23016);国家自然科学基金资助项目(52269003);江西省水利厅科技项目(202023ZDKT02)。

摘　　要：洪水遭遇组合对揭示流域洪水规律、防洪调度和洪水管理具有重要意义。以赣江流域为例,采用Copula函数构建下游外洲站和中游峡江站洪水的联合概率分布,进而推求条件概率分布、条件最可能值和置信区间,分析赣江中下游洪水遭遇组合规律。结果表明,赣江下游外洲站与中游峡江站发生同频率洪水的可能性很大,概率为81.57%~83.01%;给定赣江下游外洲站洪峰流量取值时,中游峡江站洪峰流量条件最可能值与实际值拟合效果总体较好,且实际值基本上在90%置信区间内,区间合理可靠;中游峡江站最可能发生的洪水重现期均略小于下游外洲站洪水重现期,偏小4.0%~6.6%;下游外洲站洪水重现期为100 a时,中游峡江站洪水重现期的最可能值为94 a,90%置信区间为[39,184]年。研究成果可以提升对赣江流域洪水规律的认识,为流域防洪减灾提供参考。The analysis of flood encounter combination plays an important role in revealing flood rule,controlling flood and managing flood.Taking Ganjiang River Basin as an example,the Copula function is used to construct the joint probability distribution of flood at Waizhou Hydrology Station in the lower reaches of Ganjiang River and Xiajiang Hydrology Station in the middle reaches of Ganjiang River,and then the conditional probability distribution,conditional most likely value and confidence interval are deduced to analyze the combination law of flood in the middle and lower reaches of Ganjiang River.The results show that,(a)there is a high probability of the equivalent frequency flood occurring at Waizhou Station and Xiajiang Station,and the probability is 81.57%-83.01%;(b)when the value of flood peak flow of Waizhou Station is given,the fitting effect of the most likely condition value of flood peak flow of Xiajiang Station is generally good with the actual value and the 90%confidence interval can basically cover the actual flood peak flow of Xiajiang Station,and the uncertainty interval is reasonable and reliable;(c)the most likely flood return periods of Xiajiang Station are slightly smaller than those of Waizhou Station by 4.0%-6.6%;and(d)when the flood return period of Waizhou Station is 100 years,the most likely value of the flood return period of Xiajiang Station is 94 years with a 90%confidence interval[39,184]years.The research results can improve the understanding of flood law in Ganjiang River basin and provide reference for flood control and disaster reduction.

关 键 词：洪水遭遇组合 联合分布 条件分布 条件最可能值 COPULA函数 赣江流域 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]