基于STIRPAT改进模型的民航碳排放预测研究  

Research on Civil Aviation Carbon Emission Prediction Based on Improved STIRPAT Model

作　　者：屈仁春[1] 陈萍秀[1] QU Renchun;CHEN Pingxiu(Chengdu Aeronautic Polytechnic,Chengdu 610100,China)

机构地区：[1]成都航空职业技术学院,成都610100

出　　处：《成都航空职业技术学院学报》2023年第2期68-71,共4页Journal of Chengdu Aeronautic Polytechnic

基　　金：成都市哲学社会科学重点研究基地—成都航空产业发展与文化建设研究中心项目(CAIACDRCXM2022-40)。

摘　　要：基于机理分析,综合灰色关联度和相关系数,确定了影响我国民航碳排放的主要指标,以2000—2019年的指标数据为样本,利用偏最小二乘回归方法构建了民航碳排放预测的STIRPAT改进模型,参考《“十四五”民用航空发展规划》的规划数据和GM(1,1)模型对民航碳排放单个指标进行预测,计算了2023-2032年的民航碳排放预测值,根据预测结果给出了实现民航碳达峰的建议。Based on mechanism analysis,gray correlation degrees and correlation coefficients,the main indicators affecting China's civil aviation carbon emissions are determined.Taking the indicator data from 2000 to 2019 as samples,an improved STIRPAT model for civil aviation carbon emission prediction is constructed by using partial least squares regression(PLSR)method.With reference to the planning data of the"14th Five-Year Plan"for Civil Aviation Development and the GM(1,1)model,the civil aviation carbon emission single index is predicted,and the civil aviation carbon emission predicted value from 2023 to 2032 is calculated.According to the prediction results,suggestions for achieving peak carbon emissions in civil aviation are provided.

关 键 词：民航 碳排放 STIRPAT 偏最小二乘回归 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]