货币增长有助于解释近期的通胀飙升吗?  

Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?

作　　者：克劳迪奥·博里奥 鲍里斯·霍夫曼 埃贡·扎克拉耶克 徐恒革(编译) Claudio Borio;Boris Hofmann;Egon Zakrajsek(Monetary and Economic Department,Bank for International Settlements)

机构地区：[1]国际清算银行货币经济部 [2]不详

出　　处：《金融市场研究》2023年第6期32-38,共7页Financial Market Research

摘　　要：货币增长和通胀之间的关联强度取决于通胀状态:当通胀高企时,它们是强相关的,但在低通胀时则几乎不存在联系。在近期从低通胀向高通胀的转换中,也可以看到其中的联系。货币供应增加先于通胀抬升,货币增长强劲的国家出现了更高的通胀。关注货币增长将有助于改进疫情后的通胀预测,说明其信息价值可能被忽视。The strength of the link between money growth and inflation depends on the inflation regime:it is oneto-one when inflation is high and virtually non-existent when it is low.A link can also be seen in the recent possible transition from a low-to a high-inflation regime.An upsurge in money growth preceded the inflation flare-up,and countries with stronger money growth saw markedly higher inflation.Looking at money growth would have helped to improve post-pandemic inflation forecasts,suggesting that its information value may have been neglected.

关 键 词：货币增长 通胀状态 通胀预测 货币政策 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]