Decadal expansion and contraction of permafrost in the Three-River Source Region,Qinghaie-Tibet Plateau(1901-2020)  

作　　者：Fang-Fang CHEN Dong-Liang LUO Yi-Ting GAO Wen-Jie LEI 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China [2]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2023年第2期226-236,共11页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：the CAS Western Young Scholars Project(D.Luo)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U2243214 and 41671060).

摘　　要：Permafrost and its spatiotemporal variation considerably influence the surface and sub-surface hydrological processes,biogeochemical cycles,fauna and flora growth and cold region engineering projects in the Three-River Source Region(TRSR),Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.However,the dynamics of permafrost over a relatively long term duration(e.g.>100 years)in the TRSR is not well quantified.Thus,the spatial and temporal variations of the temperature at the top of the perennially frozen/unfrozen ground(TTOP),active layer thickness(ALT)in permafrost regions and the maximum depth of frost penetration(MDFP)in the seasonally frozen ground of the TRSR during 1901–2020 were simulated using the TTOP model and Stefan equation driven by the widely used reanalysis Climatic Research Unit 4.05 dataset.Results revealed that the permafrost in the TRSR over the past 120 years did not degrade monotonically but experienced considerable fluctuations in area with the decadal oscillations of climate warming and cooling:shrinking from 263.9×10^(3)km^(2)in the 1900s to 233.3×10^(3)km^(2)in the 1930s,expanding from 232.3×10^(3)km^(2)in the 1940s to 260.9×10^(3)km^(2)in the 1970s and shrinking again from 254.1×10^(3)km^(2)in the 1980s to 228.9×10^(3)km^(2)in the 2010s.The regional average TTOP increased from−1.34±2.74℃in the 1910s to−0.48±2.69℃in the 2010s,demonstrating the most noticeable change for the extremely stable permafrost(TTOP<−5℃)from 8%to 1%.The regional average ALT increased from 2.68±0.52 m to 2.87±0.46 m,with the area proportion of ALT>3.0 m by 12%from 1901 to 2020.Notably,minor changes were observed for the regional average MDFP,probably due to the increase in the area proportion of MDFP<3.0 m(caused by climate warming)and MDFP>3.5 m(owing to the transformation of permafrost to seasonally frozen ground)by 7.39%and 4.77%,respectively.These findings can facilitate an in-depth understanding of permafrost dynamics and thus provide a scientific reference for eco-environment protection and sustainable development

关 键 词：Three-River Source Region PERMAFROST TTOP model Stefan equation Qinghaie-Tibet Plateau 

分 类 号：P64[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]