运用捕获-再捕获方法估计天津市跨性别女性人群规模  

Estimate the population size of transgender women based on the capture-recapture method in Tianjin

作　　者：龚卉[1,2] 于茂河[1,2] 柳忠泉[1,2] 杨杰 Gong Hui;Yu Maohe;Liu Zhongquan;Yang Jie(Department of AIDS/STD Prevention and Control,Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Pathogenic Microbiology of Infectious Disease,Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,Tianjin 300011,China;Shenlan Public Health Consulting Service Center,Tianjin 300121,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制所,天津300011 [2]天津市疾病预防控制中心/天津市传染病病原微生物重点实验室,天津300011 [3]深蓝公共卫生咨询服务中心,天津300121

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2023年第6期912-916,共5页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

基　　金：天津市卫生健康科技项目(ZC20022)。

摘　　要：目的了解天津市跨性别女性(TGW)人群规模,分析该人群性行为特征,为制定防控措施提供依据。方法采用捕获-再捕获方法,估计天津市TGW人群规模,同时收集匿名调查问卷,对TGW人群的性行为进行多因素logistic分析。采用问卷星建立调查问卷数据库,采用SPSS 24.0软件进行统计学分析。结果共调查TGW人群213人,估计天津市TGW人群规模为599(95%CI:407~792)人。TGW人群坚持使用安全套的多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,最近3个月有固定性伴的人坚持使用安全套的比例较低(与最近3个月无固定性伴者相比,aOR=0.44,95%CI:0.23~0.82),最近1年做过HIV抗体检测者坚持使用安全套的比例较高(与最近1年与未做过HIV抗体检测者相比,aOR=2.73,95%CI:1.06~6.99)。结论需要加强TGW人群及其固定性伴的HIV动员检测,提高安全套的使用率。Objective To investigate the population size of transgender women(TGW)in Tianjin and analyze the characteristics of their sexual behaviors to provide a basis for AIDS prevention and control.Methods To estimate the population size of TGW in Tianjin using the capture-recapture method.At the same time,an anonymous questionnaire was collected to conduct a multi-factor logistic analysis of the TGW population's sexual behavior.Results A total of 213 TGW were investigated.Tianjin's estimated TGW population size was 599(95%CI:407-792).Multivariate logistic analysis of the use of condoms consistently showed that compared with TGW without regular sex partners,those with regular sex partners had a lower proportion of consistent condom use(aOR=0.44,95%CI:0.23-0.82)and had received HIV tests in the last year were more likely to adhere to condom use than those who had not been tested(aOR=2.73,95%CI:1.06-6.99).Conclusion It is necessary to strengthen HIV mobilization testing among the TGW population and their regular sexual partners to improve condom use.

关 键 词：跨性别女性 捕获-再捕获方法 人群规模 

分 类 号：R169.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]