信贷塌方下财政赤字货币化对通货膨胀的影响  

Impacts of Fiscal Deficit Monetization on Inflation under Credit Crunch

作　　者：王成[1] 孟渤 WANG Cheng;MENG Bo

机构地区：[1]湖北经济学院碳排放权交易省部共建协同创新中心 [2]日本贸易振兴机构亚洲经济研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2023年第6期82-99,M0004,共19页World Economy Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“优化营商环境导向的地方财政能力提升机制研究”(项目编号:21BGL268)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：财政赤字货币化对通货膨胀的影响是学术界争论的一个焦点,也是实践中能否实施财政赤字货币化的一个关键问题。针对这一问题,文章在信贷塌方这一前提下展开分析,首先结合明斯基拐点和货币数量论构建简约模型,认为财政赤字货币化对通货膨胀的影响存在不确定性,其中,实施某一适度规模的财政赤字货币化能够维持物价稳定。文章进一步构建财政赤字货币化的存量-流量一致性模型,模拟研究发现:(1)当信贷规模稳定时,实施财政赤字货币化会引发通货膨胀;(2)当信贷塌方时,对某一规模的信贷缩减,存在能够维持物价稳定的适度规模财政赤字货币化,大于这一规模的财政赤字货币化会导致通货膨胀,小于这一规模则会导致通货紧缩;(3)财政赤字货币化的适度规模主要取决于信贷缩减的规模,但也受存贷款利率等多种因素的影响,多种因素的影响及部分因素的非线性影响增加了财政赤字货币化对通货膨胀影响的不确定性。The impacts of the monetization of fiscal deficits on inflation is a focus of debate in the academic community.In view of this problem,this paper analyzes it under the premise of credit crunch.This paper constructs a simple model combining Minsky Moment and quantity theory of money,and assumes that under the condition of credit crunch,the impact of fiscal deficit monetization on inflation is uncertain,and a moderate scale of fiscal deficit monetization will not lead to inflation or deflation.Then it further constructs a general equilibrium model based on the stock-flow consistent model,and has the conclusions.First,when the scale of credit remains unchanged,the implementation of monetization of fiscal deficit will lead to inflation.Second,for a certain scale of credit reduction,there is a moderate scale of fiscal deficit monetization that neither leads to inflation nor deflation,while the monetization of fiscal deficit larger than this scale will lead to inflation,and the monetization of fiscal deficit smaller than this scale will lead to deflation.Third,the appropriate scale depends on the scale of credit reduction and is also affected by factors such as deposit and loan interest rates.Under the background that inflation has become a major concern in the implementation of fiscal deficit monetization,this study can provide a certain theoretical reference.

关 键 词：财政赤字货币化 通货膨胀 信贷塌方 存量-流量一致性模型 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F832.4F822.5