面向“排除合理怀疑”标准的案件推理模型  

Case reasoning model for the“beyond a reasonable doubt”standard

作　　者：王佳[1] 王维曦 黄梦瑶 王李韬 申世飞[1] WANG Jia;WANG Weixi;HUANG Mengyao;WANG Litao;SHEN Shifei(Institute of Public Safety Research,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共安全研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第6期951-959,共9页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174101)。

摘　　要：在社会安全案件审判阶段,对于案件推理依据“排除合理怀疑”标准认定案件事实,是在无罪推定原则下判定嫌疑人是否有罪的关键前提。针对这一问题的研究存在定量化不足的问题。该研究应用链式规则和Bayes推理方法,深入解析“排除合理怀疑”标准,通过理论和实证分析提出主张合理性的判断规则和证据解释的链式规则;定义解释间的独立性,提出证据的独立划分方法以判断主张能否合理解释证据,构建面向该标准的案件推理模型。将构建的案件推理模型应用于车辆冲撞案和故意杀人案2类频发的刑事案件,对控辩双方提出的主张进行模型推理分析,并对比模型分析结果与实际案件事实,验证模型的有效性。研究结果表明:对于达到“排除合理怀疑”标准的与未达到“排除合理怀疑”标准的案件,所提出的模型均能够协助认定案件事实,并给出相应依据。[Objective]To maintain social justice and to prevent unjust cases,during the trial stage of social security cases,the criminal facts for case reasoning based on the“beyond a reasonable doubt”(BRD)standard must be determined.It is a crucial prerequisite for passing a judgment on whether the suspect is guilty under the principle of the presumption of innocence.BRD is an essential standard of proof in a criminal case,but its concept is relatively vague and abstract,which makes it challenging to implement in practice.Moreover,research regarding this issue is insufficient.[Methods]This study applies the chain rule and the Bayesian inference method to deeply analyze the BRD standard.The rationality of the causal logic is used to examine the rationality under the reverse causal logic and put forward the judgment rule of the rationality of the case facts.The rule states that the claim is reasonable given the evidence if and only if the claim is a priori reasonable and the claim can reasonably explain the evidence.Accordingly,the chain rule of evidence interpretation is proposed,which decomposes the interpretation of multiple pieces of evidence into the interpretation of a single piece of evidence,which can simplify the difficulty of analysis.Considering the above rules,a case reasoning model facing the BRD standard is proposed.The model exhibits the claims of the prosecution and defense in the case into a sequence of actions,defining the a priori reasonableness of the claims and the reasonable interpretation of the evidence.Moreover,the model further defines the independence between the evidence interpretation and the independent division of the evidence,and then the relationship between the independent division and the evidence can be reasonably explained.[Results]The proposed model is applied to two common criminal cases,vehicle collision and homicide.The prosecution and defense opinions of the cases are investigated through the reasoning model,and the model analysis results are compared with the actual case facts

关 键 词：社会安全 合理怀疑 案件推理 证据解释 链式规则 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学]