土地流转有助于提升粮食安全吗——基于土地经营方式转变的分析  

Does Land Circulation Help Improve Food Security?——Based on the Analysis of Change of Land Management Mode

作　　者：靳卫东 房芳 陈佩奇 JIN Wei-dong;FANG Fang;CHEN Pei-qi

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266071 [2]中共鱼台县委党校,山东济宁272399

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期105-121,共17页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：马克思主义理论研究和建设工程特别委托项目“有效市场和有为政府更好结合研究”(2021MYB014);山东省自然科学基金项目“农业转移人口的就业质量提升与市民化融合对接机制研究”(ZR2019MG035)。

摘　　要：近期土地流转被视为保障粮食生产和粮食安全的有效策略.为此,本文研究了土地流转影响粮食生产和粮食安全的理论机制,并采用固定效应模型、工具变量法和多重中介效应模型等进行实证分析,结果发现土地流转明显降低了粮食生产,是我国粮食产量增速下滑的重要原因.进一步机制检验表明,土地流转推动小农户向家庭农场转变,一方面有利于土地经营集约化、专业化和组织化,增加了粮食单产;另一方面也显化和提升了土地成本,在种粮“微利”条件下减少了粮食种植面积;两方面因素相比,种粮面积减少对粮食生产的影响更大,所以土地流转在总体上降低了粮食产量,对我国粮食安全构成了威胁.Recently,land transfer has been regarded as a valid strategy to ensure effective grain supply and food security.Therefore,this paper examined the influence of land transfer on grain production in terms of both grain yield per unit area and grain crops sown area.The results showed that land transfer significantly reduced grain output,which was an essential factor for the decline of China's grain output growth in recent years.F urther mechanism research showed that land transfer encouraged small farmers to convert to family farms.On the one hand,this change facilitated the intensification and specialization of land cultivation,which increased grain yield per unit area.On the other hand,this change increased and manifested the cost of land,which reduced the grain crops sown area under"marginally profitable"conditions.By comparison,the reduction of grain crops sown area had a greater impact on grain production.Consequently,land transfer decreased grain output in general and posed a threat to China's food security.

关 键 词：土地流转 粮食生产 粮食单产 种粮面积 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F323.211[经济管理—产业经济]