福州设施越冬茬番茄寒冻害天气指数保险设计  

Weather Index Insurance Design for Cold and Freezing Damage on Overwinter Greenhoused Tomato in Fuzhou

作　　者：苏荣瑞 林瑞坤 陈家金 黄川容 林丽萱 李祖亮[5] 林琼[5] 黄家畅 Su Rongrui;Lin Ruikun;Chen Jiajin;Huang Chuanrong;Lin Lixuan;Li Zuliang;Lin Qiong;Huang Jiachang(Fuzhou Agrometeorological Trial Station,Fuzhou 350014,China;Fuzhou Technology Innovation Center of Intelligent Meteorology,Fuzhou 350014,China;Fujian Meteorological Service Center,Fuzhou 350001,China;Changle Meteorological Station,Fuzhou 350200,China;Fujian Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Fuzhou 350013,China;China Life Property Insurance Company Limited Fujian Branch,Fuzhou 350000,China)

机构地区：[1]福州农业气象试验站,福州350014 [2]福州市智慧气象行业技术创新中心,福州350014 [3]福建省气象服务中心,福州350001 [4]福州市长乐区气象局,福州350200 [5]福建省农业科学院,福州350013 [6]中国人寿财产保险股份有限公司福建省分公司,福州350000

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2023年第3期26-31,共6页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：福州市科技计划项目(2019-N-6)。

摘　　要：冬季寒冻害是影响福建省福州市冬春喜温类蔬菜生产的主要农业气象灾害,寒冻害天气指数保险的设计与推广,对于转移农业气象灾害风险,降低农民损失具有重大意义。根据花果期低温寒冻害对番茄开花坐果特性及产量的影响,建立了番茄寒冻害灾损模型。基于越冬番茄寒冻害等级气象指标,用福州市及所辖县(市、区)8个国家气象观测站19702020年冬季(12月次年2月)日最低气温观测资料,统计历年冬季日最低气温T_(min)<0℃和0℃≤T_(min)≤3℃的最长连续天数,采用Exponential、Weibull、Gamma、Log logistic、GEV、Gumbel等参数模型进行拟合,筛选最优低温风险分布模型。综合番茄不同寒冻害等级减产率和低温风险分布模型,厘定了不同免赔率下,以冬季为投保时段的设施番茄寒冻害天气指数保险的纯费率。设施越冬茬番茄寒冻害天气指数保险理赔触发值为0℃≤T_(min)≤3℃的持续天数D≥2或T_(min)<0℃。福州市及所辖县(市、区)的纯保险费率差异较大,闽江口以南沿海的长乐区、福清市等等低温低风险区保险纯费率较低;闽清、永泰等内陆县市低温高风险区保险纯费率较高。设施越冬茬番茄种植的气候适宜区主要分布于长乐区、福清市的低海拔平原区域,寒冻害天气指数保险免赔率为10%时,纯保险费率分别为6.62%和1.62%,寒冻害天气指数保险产品适宜在该区域推广。Cold and freezing damage in winter is the main agrometeorological disaster that affects the production of warm vegetables in winter and spring in Fuzhou,Fujian Province.The design and popularization of the weather index insurance of cold and freezing damage is of great significance to transfer the risk of agrometeorological disaster and reduce the loss of farmers.According to the effects of low temperature and freezing damage on the flowering and fruiting characteristics and yield of tomato at flowering stage,a cold and freezing damage model of tomato was established.Based on the meteorological index of cold damage level of overwintering tomato,and the daily minimum temperature observed at the eight national meteorological stations in Fuzhou during the winter(December to February)of 19702020,the longest continuous days with daily minimum temperature T_(min)<0℃ and the longest continuous days with 0℃≤T_(min)≤3℃.The distribution models of Exponential,Weibull,Gamma,Log logistic,Gev,Gumbel and so on were used to fit these counted days,and the optimal low temperature risk distribution model was selected.Based on the models of yield reduction rate and low temperature risk distribution for different cold and freezing grades of tomato,the pure premium rate of winter cold and freezing weather index insurance for overwintering tomato was determined under different deductible rates.The results showed that the trigger value of the weather index insurance claim for cold and freezing damage on overwintering tomato is the number of days with daily minimum temperature 0℃≤T_(min)≤3℃ for 2 days(D≥2)or the minimum temperature below 0℃(T_(min)<0℃).There are great regional differences in pure premium rates among counties and cities in Fuzhou.The pure premium rates are relatively low in Changle and Fuqing,the coastal areas south of Minjiang Estuary,while Yongtai and Minqing and other inland counties and cities in the low-temperature high risk areas have higher pure premium rates.The suitable climate areas for p

关 键 词：天气指数保险 寒冻害 番茄 风险分布 纯费率 

分 类 号：S641.2[农业科学—蔬菜学] S166[农业科学—园艺学]