基于脆弱性曲线的河北省日光温室棚室雪灾风险评估  

Risk Assessment of Snow Disaster to Solar Greenhouse in Hebei Province Based on Vulnerability Curves

作　　者：张静 陈笑娟 李婷 魏军 Zhang Jing;Chen Xiaojuan;Li Ting;Wei Jun(Hebei Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Environmental Meteorological Center,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Key Laboratory of Meteorological and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省气象灾害防御和环境气象中心,石家庄050021 [2]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,石家庄050021

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2023年第3期32-37,共6页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：河北省科技厅科研项目(17275430)。

摘　　要：基于灾害风险评估理论,利用致灾因子的危险性和承灾体脆弱性构建雪深与日光温室损失率的脆弱性曲线,定量评估了河北省日光温室雪灾风险。随着重现期的增加,雪深致灾强度增强,受影响的区域扩大,但不同重现期下的高危险区分布大致相同,存在日积雪深度致灾高危险区的沿山分布带。当雪深小于21 cm时,日光温室的损失率小于1%。由于致灾因子危险性高,日光温室雪灾损失高风险区位于太行山山前平原,包括廊坊南部、保定北部、石家庄中东部、邢台东部和邯郸中东部,尤其是冀南地区,损失超过30万元/km^(2);由于承灾体暴露度高,承德、唐山和秦皇岛存在中风险区。The“snow depth-loss rate”vulnerability curves were established to evaluate the snow disaster risk to solar greenhouses in Hebei Province quantitatively by using the risk of disaster-causing factor and the vulnerability of bearing body based on the disaster risk assessment theory.With the increase of return period,the intensity of snow depth disaster increased and the affected areas expanded.However,the high risky areas were the same in different return periods,and high risk areas of daily snow depth disaster intensity were distributed along mountains.When the snow depth was less than 21 cm,the loss rate of solar greenhouse was lower than 1%.Due to higher hazard factor risks,the high-risk areas of greenhouse snow disaster loss were located in the piedmont plain before the Taihang Mountains,including south of Langfang,north of Baoding,eastern-central part of Shijiazhuang,east of Xingtai and easterncentral part of Handan,especially the south of Hebei Province.The averaged loss in these regions was more than 300,000 yuan/km2.Besides,because of the higher vulnerability of bearing body,there were middle risky areas in Chengde,Tangshan and Qinhuangdao.

关 键 词：脆弱性曲线 日光温室 雪深 风险 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S625.5[农业科学—园艺学]