黄河流域梯级水库大坝风险评估与管控的战略思考  

Strategic Considerations for Risk Assessment and Control of Cascade Reservoir Dams in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：李宗坤[1,2] 王特 葛巍[1,2,3] 景来红 罗秋实 杨风威 宋志宇 马福恒 LI Zongkun;WANG Te;GE Wei;JING Laihong;LUO Qiushi;YANG Fengwei;SONG Zhiyu;MA Fuheng(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Laboratory,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210009,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学黄河实验室,河南郑州450001 [3]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003 [4]南京水利科学研究院,江苏南京210009

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第7期1-6,共6页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52179144,52079127,U2243244,U2040224);河南省自然科学基金优秀青年基金资助项目(232300421067);河南省高校科技创新人才支持计划项目(22HASTIT011);黄河实验室(郑州大学)一流课题(YRL22IR03,YRL22LT06)。

摘　　要：梯级水库群的安全是保障黄河长治久安、促进全流域高质量发展的客观要求。针对梯级水库风险格外复杂、难以量化的问题,基于系统风险识别与分析,将梯级水库大坝风险分为自身风险和附加风险,将溃坝风险后果分为直接后果和潜在后果,建立了梯级水库与单个水库大坝风险计算方法的有效衔接。以连溃条件概率量化风险的传递和叠加程度,提出了用于梯级水库大坝风险概率计算和溃坝风险后果评估的相关理念和方法。针对不同梯级水库类别并结合“四预”措施,分别从降低风险概率和减小风险后果层面指明了梯级水库大坝风险管控的方向,可为黄河流域梯级水库群规划、建设和运行管理提供参考。The safe and stable operation of cascade reservoirs is the objective demand to ensure the long⁃term stability of the Yellow River and promote the high⁃quality development of the whole basin.In view of the issue that the risk of cascade reservoirs is particularly complex and difficult to quantify,some considerations were made on the risk assessment methods of cascade reservoirs.Based on the system risk iden⁃tification and analysis,the dam risks of cascade reservoirs were divided into the own risk and additional risk,and the risk consequences of dam failure were divided into direct consequence and potential consequence.Then,an effective connection of risk calculation methods be⁃tween cascade reservoirs and individual reservoirs was established.By quantifying the risk transmission and superposition degree with the con⁃ditional probability of successive dam failures,the relevant concepts and methods for the calculation of risk probability and consequences of cascade reservoir dams were proposed.According to the different types of cascade reservoirs and in combination with the“four pre⁃measures”measures,the directions of risk management and control were pointed out from the aspects of risk probability reduction and risk consequence mitigation,which could provide reference for the planning,construction and operation management of cascade reservoirs in the Yellow River Basin.

关 键 词：梯级水库 风险概率 溃坝后果 洪水 黄河流域 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV882.1