经验频率公式的比较与选择  

Comparison and Selection of Empirical Frequency Formulas

作　　者：慕平 慕星 MU Ping;MU Xing(Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin,Ministry of Water Resources(Under Construction),Zhengzhou 450003,China;China South-to-North Water Diversion Corporation Limited,Beijing 100036,China)

机构地区：[1]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003 [2]水利部黄河流域水治理与水安全重点实验室(筹),河南郑州450003 [3]中国南水北调集团有限公司,北京100036

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第7期48-51,67,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0402501);河南科技智库调研课题(HNKJZK-2022-14A);黄河重点科研课题(2021YF013)。

摘　　要：20世纪初学者们研究提出了不同的经验频率公式,目前世界各国提出的经验频率公式多达数十种。采用不同的经验频率公式,直接影响后续的分析、计算及参数拟定等,这对设计洪水的估算结果有明显影响。通过对各类经验频率公式的比较,分析各经验频率公式的相对偏差,并用实测暴雨洪水系列初步验证经验频率公式的差别大小,得出洪水系列的最大洪水重现期误差最大,20 a一遇以下洪水重现期误差相对较小。为了尽可能地减小在设计洪水估算中所应用经验频率公式存在的理论方法误差,以及较短洪水系列中存在特大值、特小值而造成的原始资料误差,在实际应用时,需采用便于计算并趋近于无偏的经验频率公式。对相对较长的暴雨洪水系列,推荐选用经验频率公式的中值公式或数学期望公式进行频率(或重现期)估计,建议将第一项(第二项)、末项的频率(或重现期)作为参考值。Currently,dozens of empirical frequency formulas have been developed by various countries since the beginning of last century.However,the differences of these empirical frequency formulas directly affect the subsequent analysis,calculation and determination of pa⁃rameters which have significant impacts on the estimation of design flood.In this paper,by comparing various empirical frequency formulas,analyzing the relative deviation of the empirical frequency formulas,and preliminary verifying the differences of empirical frequency formulas with the measured storm floods series,the conclusion shows that the relative error of the maximum flood recurrence period is the largest,and the relative error of flood recurrence period that less than 20 years is smaller.In order to minimize the theoretical errors of the empirical fre⁃quency formulas in the estimation of design flood,and minimize data errors caused by extra⁃large and extra⁃small value in short flood series,simple and unbiased empirical frequency formulashould be adopted in practice.With regard to relative long flood series,the median formula or mathematical expectation formula are recommended for frequency or recurrence period estimation,and the first order(the second order)and the last order of the frequency or recurrence period are recommended as reference values.

关 键 词：设计洪水 经验频率 误差 中值公式 数学期望公式 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]