考虑径流不确定性的水库调度效益—风险均衡优化模型及其应用  

A Reservoir Scheduling Benefit-risk Equilibrium Optimization Model Considering Runoff Uncertainty and Its Application

作　　者：彭静萍[1] 张超[1] 陶一陶 何星遥 杨旭[1,5] 徐小天 莫莉 PENG Jing-ping;ZHANG Chao;TAO Yi-tao;HE Xing-yao;YANG Xu;XU Xiao-tian;MO Li(China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443002,China;School of Hydropower and Information Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Digital River Basin Science and Technology,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze River and Hydropower Science,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北宜昌443002 [2]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]华中科技大学数字流域科学与技术湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430074 [4]华中科技大学水利水电科学研究院,湖北武汉430074 [5]智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第6期49-53,21,共6页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979114);2002年高等学校博士学科点专项科研资助项目(20020183061)。

摘　　要：由于径流的不确定性,在制定水电站发电计划时会有一定的风险,因此在水库调度中引入经济学中谱风险测度的概念量化风险,建立了效益—风险均衡优化模型,可根据电站情况,通过不同的风险厌恶系数及置信度反映出决策者对风险的态度。在三峡电站的应用结果表明,与传统的发电收益最大模型相比,提出的效益—风险均衡优化模型在发电收益损失极小的条件下,可有效地降低水电站因来水的不确定性而造成的风险。Due to the uncertainty of runoff,there are certain risks when formulating hydropower station power gener-ation plans.In this paper,the concept of spectral risk measurement in economics was introduced in reservoir dispatch to quantify risk,and a benefit-risk equilibrium optimization model was established,which can reflect the attitude of decision makers to risk through different risk aversion coefficients and confidence values according to the actual situation of the power station.Taking the Three Gorges Power Station as an example,the results show that compared with the tradition-al model of maximum power generation benefit,the proposed benefit-risk equilibrium optimization model can effectively reduce the risk caused by the uncertainty of inflow in hydropower stations under the condition that the loss of power gen-eration income is extremely small.

关 键 词：水库调度 谱风险测度 风险量化 闪电搜索算法 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]