郑州市新、老城区暴雨内涝灾害风险指标重要性分析  

Importance Analysis of Disaster Risk Indicators for Storm Flooding in New and Old Urban Areas of Zhengzhou City

作　　者：张金萍[1,2] 陈蔚 方宏远[1] 张浩锐 ZHANG Jin-ping;CHEN Wei;FANG Hong-yuan;ZHANG Hao-rui(School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection&Regional Coordinated Development,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与土木工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第6期59-63,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200205);2021年度河南省基金项目(212300410404);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2021LASW-A15);郑州大学青年教师培育基金项目(JC202042037)。

摘　　要：为探究影响城市暴雨内涝灾害风险的评价指标及各指标的重要性,以郑州市高新区和金水区作为新、老城区的代表,建立了涵盖自然要素和社会要素的风险指标评价体系,并利用随机森林模型分别确定了各评价指标对新、老城区暴雨内涝灾害影响的重要程度。结果表明,对于新、老城区来说,孕灾环境敏感性均是最重要的一级指标,其中,不透水率、管道密度分别是地表、地下孕灾环境最重要的三级指标;致灾因子危险性对于金水区和高新区的重要性最低,且雨量的重要性远大于雨型;新、老城区的差异主要体现在承灾体稳定性,其对于金水区、高新区的重要性分别为0.23、0.09。结果可为郑州市暴雨内涝灾害的防治提供一定参考。The Gaoxin District and Jinshui District were selected as the representatives of the new and old urban areas of Zhengzhou to explore the evaluation indexes that affect the risk of rainstorm waterlogging in cities and the importance of each index,and a risk index evaluation system covering natural and social factors was established.The importance of each evaluation index in new and old urban areas was determined by using random forest model.The results show that for both new and old urban areas,the sensitivity of disaster-inducing environment is the most important first-level indicator.Among them,imperviousness and pipe density are the most important tertiary indicators for surface and subsurface disas-ter-preventing environments,respectively.The risk of disaster-causing factors is the least important for Jinshui District and Gaoxin District,and the importance of rainfall is much greater than that of rain type.The difference between the old and new urban areas is mainly reflected in the stability of disaster-bearing body,whose importance is 0.23 and 0.09 for Jinshui District and Gaoxin District.The conclusion can provide some reference for the prevention and control of rain-storm waterlogging disaster in Zhengzhou.

关 键 词：城市暴雨内涝灾害 风险评价体系 新、老城区 随机森林 指标重要性 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学] TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X43[天文地球—地球物理学]