大选后的政策延续与转向——菲律宾2022年回顾与2023年展望  

Economic Recovery and Diplomatic Adjustments in the Philippines After Election:A Retrospect of 2022 and Prospect of 2023

作　　者：马宇晨 吴杰伟[1,2] Ma Yuchen;Wu Jiewei

机构地区：[1]北京大学外国语学院 [2]北京大学东方文学研究中心

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2023年第2期21-34,共14页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

摘　　要：菲律宾2022年举行总统选举后,在内政、经济和外交方面均发生了一定转变。文章以媒体报道为一手材料,结合对菲律宾形势的长期关注,回顾该国2022年的内政、经济与外交成果,并对2023年的发展趋势进行展望。小马科斯在选举中以较大优势获胜,取得国会两院多数席位,在执政后延续了杜特尔特政府的多项政策,并进一步放松防疫政策以助力经济复苏。菲律宾宏观经济在回暖中承压,受到通货膨胀、债务规模以及外汇储备三重压力,同时面临能源和粮食安全问题。新任政府延续独立自主的外交政策,在保持与中国友好合作的同时,继续深化与美、日等传统盟友的防务合作,积极开展周边外交和峰会外交。未来,小马科斯政府将继续保持稳固的执政基础,家族政治将成为国内政治主要议题;三大支柱产业有望继续助力国家经济复苏,但增长成绩将受限于国际经济形势变动;独立自主外交政策将得到持续贯彻,在保持中菲友好的前提下进一步巩固与美、日的盟友关系。The Philippines held its presidential election in 2022,which brought about certain changes in domes⁃tic,economic and diplomatic affairs.This paper,using media reports as primary materials,reviews the Philippines'domestic,economic,and diplomatic achievements in 2022 and provides an outlook for the development in 2023.Ferdinand Marcos Jr won the election by a significant margin,obtaining a majority in both the Senate and House.Af⁃ter taking office,the new government continued many policies of the Duterte administration and further relaxed epi⁃demic prevention policies to help economic recovery.The Philippines'macroeconomic recovery is under pressure from inflation,debt and foreign exchange reserves,as well as energy and food security problems.The new govern⁃ment continues to pursue an independent foreign policy,maintaining friendly cooperation with China,while deepen⁃ing defense cooperation with traditional allies such as the United States and Japan,and actively engaging in neigh⁃boring and summit diplomacy.In 2023,the Marcos government will continue to maintain a solid political foundation,with family politics becoming the main political issue domestically.The three key industries are expected to continue to contribute to the country's economic recovery,but their growth will be limited by the changes in the international economic situation.The independent foreign policy will be consistently implemented,consolidating the country's alli⁃ance with the US and Japan,while maintaining friendly relations with China.

关 键 词：菲律宾 总统选举 小马科斯 杜特尔特 中菲关系 

分 类 号：D733.5[政治法律—政治学] F133.5[政治法律—中外政治制度]