福岛核污水排放预测计算研究  

Study on the Prediction and Computation of Fukushima Nuclear Contaminated Water Discharge

作　　者：周涛 许鹏[2,3] 毛赏 方俊豪 张博雅 ZHOU Tao;XU Peng;MAO Shang;FANG Junhao;ZHANG Boya(Department of Nuclear Science and Technology,School of Energy and Environment,Southeast University,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210096;School of Nuclear Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing,102206,China;Institute of Nuclear Thermal-hydraulic Safety and Standardization,China;National Engineering Research Center of Power Generation Control and Safety,Nanjing,210096,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学,能源与环境学院,核科学与技术系,南京210096 [2]华北电力大学,核科学与工程学院,北京102206 [3]核热工安全与标准化研究团队,中国 [4]大型发电装备安全运行与智能测控国家工程研究中心,南京210096

出　　处：《核科学与工程》2023年第2期451-460,共10页Nuclear Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2016YFC1402501);2021年江苏省“双创人才”(JSSCRC2021500);东南大学学科振兴计划(1103007005)。

摘　　要：通过建立太平洋水动力模型,计算得到福岛核泄漏发生后,相关海域核素的扩散规律、福岛核污水船运排放预测及距离海岸1 km隧道核污水排放预测情况。通过计算结果与实际测量值进行对比发现,模拟结果与实测值吻合良好,证明了计算结果的准确性。计算结果表明:核污水一方面随着海流迁移,另一方面扩散,放射性核素浓度较高区域沿海岸线向北迁移,随后向东北方向螺旋前进。核污水船运排放后核素随海流迁移较慢,基本呈现以排污点为中心的轴向扩散,核污水中放射性核素受海流、潮流和扩散的影响,逐渐呈现带状分布,且向东北方向迁移,并于第15日左右到达日本沿海地区。无论是沿海,还是1 km排放,放射性核素会很快扩散到沿岸。随着扩散的进行,核污水中放射性核素受海流、潮流和扩散的影响,逐渐呈现带状分布,且向东北方向迁移。By establishing the hydrodynamic model of Pacific Ocean,the dispersion pattern of nuclides in the relevant sea area after the occurrence of Fukushima nuclear leakage,the prediction of Fukushima nuclear sewage shipments discharge and the prediction of nuclear sewage discharge in the tunnel 1 km away from the coast were calculated.By comparing the calculated results with the actual measured values,it is found that the simulation results are in good agreement with the actual measured values,which proves the accuracy of the calculated results.The calculation results show that the nuclear contaminated water migrates with the sea current on the one hand and spreads on the other hand,and the area with higher radionuclide concentration migrates northward along the coastline and then spirals forward in the northeast direction.After the nuclear contaminated water is discharged by ship,the nuclides migrate slowly with the ocean current,basically presenting the axial diffusion centered on the discharge point.Affected by ocean currents,tides and diffusion,radionuclides in nuclear contaminated water gradually show a zonal distribution and migrate to the northeast direction,and reach the coastal area of Japan in about 15 days.Whether it is discharged at the coast,or 1 km away from the coast,radionuclides will quickly spread to the coast.As diffusion proceeds,radionuclides in nuclear contaminated water gradually show a zonal distribution affected by currents,tides and diffusion,and migrate in the northeast direction.

关 键 词：福岛核污水 排放预测 核素扩散 

分 类 号：TL48[核科学技术—核技术及应用]