流动人口居留意愿的梯次关系与决定机制  

Process and determinisms of settlement intention among China's migrant workers

作　　者：田明[1] 徐庆文 TIAN Ming;XU Qingwen(School of Social Development and Public Policy,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China 2.Silver School of Social Work,New York University,New York 10012,USA)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学社会发展与公共政策学院,北京100875 [2]纽约大学社会工作学院,美国纽约10012

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第6期1376-1391,共16页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0406);国家自然科学基金项目(41871129)。

摘　　要：基于长居、定居以及落户意愿内涵差异及相关指标的甄别分类,以中国25个城市流动人口调查问卷为基础,分析了流动人口长居、定居和落户意愿在居留过程中的发生次序及城市差异,通过多水平Logit回归,比较了不同意愿决定机制的异同及形成条件。研究发现:①流动人口的居留意愿具有次序性,总体上定居意愿在长居意愿的基础上产生,落户意愿在定居意愿的基础上产生,层层递进。但一线城市定居意愿和落户意愿的递进关系不确定。②除受人力资本影响之外,流动人口的长居意愿的产生主要受社会关系和社会融合的影响,定居意愿受到经济收入和家属随迁的显著影响;落户意愿则主要是受身份认同和城市因素的影响,流入地身份认同度越高,落户意愿越高。③城市等级和区位有重要影响,控制其他变量的前提下,长居意愿和落户意愿随着城市等级的提升而提升,定居意愿呈倒“U”型趋势,省会城市最高,北京等一线城市最低。东北地区长居和落户意愿显著降低,定居意愿差异较小。在市民化过程中,定居意愿的形成是关键一环,要因城施策,助力提高流动人口经济实力、推进家庭化迁移,弱化落户的指标性意义。In view of the inherent differences in the willingness of long-term residence,permanent settlement,and hukou conversion,as well as the identification and classification of related indicators,this paper examines the occurrence sequence and urban differences of the migrant population's willingness of long-term residence,permanent settlement and hukou conversion in the residence process based on the questionnaire of the migrant population in 25 cities in China.Through multi-level logit regressions,this paper compares the differences and similarities of the influence mechanisms of different willingness,and the determinants of the willingness to stay.The study finds that:(1)From the perspective of the process,the willingness to stay of the migrant population is sequential and progressive.Generally speaking,the willingness of permanent settlement is generated based on the willingness of long-term residence,and the willingness of hukou conversion occurs based on the willingness of permanent settlement.However,the willingness of hukou conversion in first-tier cities is higher than that of permanent settlement,and the relationship is more complicated.(2)From the perspective of the influence mechanisms,in addition to human capital,the generation of the willingness of long-term residence is mainly affected by social relations and social integration;the willingness of permanent settlement is significantly affected by economic income and family migration,and certain level of economic income and family migration can greatly improve the willingness to settle down permanently;the willingness of hukou conversion is mainly affected by identity and urban factors,and the higher degree of identity in the inflow area,the higher willingness of hukou conversion.(3)From the perspective of urban hierarchy,the willingness of permanent settlement shows an inverted"U"-shaped trend,with the highest willingness to settle down in provincial capital cities and the lowest in first-tier cities such as Beijing;the willingness of hukou conversion in

关 键 词：流动人口 居留 落户 城市等级 决定机制 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]