中欧班列开通对中国沿线城市出口贸易的影响及机制检验  

The impact of the opening of China Railway Express on the export trade of cities along the rail line in China and the mechanism test

作　　者：赵明亮[1] 刘钦香 孙威[2,3] 高沙尔·吾拉孜 ZHAO Mingliang;LIU Qinxiang;SUN Wei;WULAZI Gaoshaer(School of International Economics and Trade,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250002,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院,济南250002 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理学报》2023年第6期1427-1442,共16页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJL112)。

摘　　要：本文基于准自然实验,采用多期双重差分(DID)方法,以2004—2019年中国279个地级市的面板数据实证检验了中欧班列开通对中国沿线城市出口贸易的差异化影响及其作用机制。研究表明:①中欧班列开通显著促进了中国沿线城市出口贸易增长,当地交通基础设施条件越完善,对出口贸易增长的带动作用越强。出口同时受途经国家数量、目的国物流运输能力的正向调节。②异质性分析发现中欧班列开通对货源地枢纽节点城市的出口贸易存在显著的正向影响,对铁路枢纽城市影响不显著,对港口城市出口具有一定的抑制作用。从城市规模来看,贸易的正向促进效应主要发生在中小城市。基于不同地理区位班列通道的分析发现,对西部通道沿线城市出口贸易增长的促进效应明显。③中欧班列的组织运营服从“轴—辐”模式,对周边区域出口辐射空间范围大致在150 km之内。中介机制检验发现,中欧班列开通可以通过提高地区市场化水平促进出口贸易增长,外围区域的城市受到市场化水平的正向中介效应更显著。运输时间成本节约的中介效应不显著,因此当前较传统海运所需时间的节约并不是促进出口贸易增长的主要原因。Based on the quasi-natural experiment,this paper uses the method of time double difference(DID)to empirically test the differential impact and mechanism of the opening of China Railway Express on the export trade of cities along the rail line by using the panel data of 279 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2019.The results show that:(1)The opening of China Railway Express has significantly promoted the export trade growth of cities along the rail line in China.The better the local transportation infrastructure conditions,the stronger the driving effect on the growth of local export trade.Exports are also positively regulated by the number of countries passing through and the logistics transportation capacity of the destination country.(2)Heterogeneity analysis found that the opening of the train has a significant positive impact on the export trade of the node cities of the supply hub,but it has no significant impact on the railway hub cities,and has a certain inhibitory effect on the export of the port cities.From the perspective of city size,the positive promotion effect of trade mainly occurs in small and medium-sized cities.Based on the analysis of different geographical location train channels,it is found that the promotion effect on the export trade growth of cities along the western channel is obvious.(3)The organization and operation of China Railway Express follow the"axle-spoke"mode,and their radiating space to the surrounding areas is roughly within 150 kilometers.The intermediary mechanism test shows that the opening of China Railway Express can promote the growth of export trade by improving the regional marketization level,and the positive intermediary effect of marketization level is more significant for cities in peripheral regions.The intermediary effect of transportation time cost saving is not significant,and the saving of time required by traditional shipping is not the main reason to promote the growth of export trade.

关 键 词：中欧班列 贸易地理 “一带一路”倡议 双重差分法 机制分析 

分 类 号：F532.4[经济管理—产业经济] F752.62