国内大循环、生产率与中国经济增长  

Domestic Great Circulation,Productivity and China’s Economic Growth

作　　者：车治辂 Che Zhilu(Institute of Economics and Resource Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100089,China;Center for Innovation and Development Studies(Zhuhai),Beijing Normal University,Zhuhai Guangdong 519087,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院,北京100089 [2]北京师范大学创新发展研究中心(珠海),广东珠海519087

出　　处：《统计与决策》2023年第12期108-113,共6页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金重大项目(20ZDA09)。

摘　　要：文章构建了一个包含31个省份和27个部门的中国经济定量模型,在国内大循环视角下分析特定生产率冲击对区域、部门及区域-部门层面实际全要素生产率、GDP和福利的影响机制及其量化效应。基于一系列反事实分析,探究各种机制的量化效应,揭示了异质性的地区要素禀赋和特定的投入产出联系如何影响特定生产率冲击的扩散。基于校准模型量化评估了两个生产率冲击实例的经济影响,结果表明:2020年湖北省实际TFP的下降导致中国GDP减少0.11%,福利减少0.07%;2013年开始的新一轮“去产能”政策使得金属加工及其制品业促进中国总GDP年均增长1.03%,非金属矿物制品业促进中国总GDP年均增长0.30%。This paper constructs a quantitative model of China’s economy covering 31 provinces and 27 sectors to analyze the mechanisms and their quantitative effects of specific productivity shocks on real total factor productivity(TFP),GDP and welfare at the regional,sectoral,and region-sector levels from the perspective of domestic great circulation.Based on a series of counterfactual analyses,the paper examines the quantitative effects of various mechanisms and reveals how heterogeneous regional factor endowments and input-output linkages affect the diffusion of specific productivity shocks.The paper also uses the calibrated model to quantitatively assess the economic impact of two examples of productivity shocks.The results show that the decline in real TFP in Hubei Province in 2020 leads to a 0.11%reduction in China’s GDP and a 0.07% reduction in welfare,that the new round of“capacity reduction”policies starting in 2013 leads to an average annual growth of 1.03% in aggregate GDP for the metal processing and products industry in China,and a 0.30% increase in aggregate GDP for the non-metallic mineral products industry in China.

关 键 词：生产率冲击 区域贸易 投入产出联系 量化贸易模型 空间经济 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]