钱塘江径流丰枯演变规律的天文成因研究  

Characterization and Causal Analysis of the Astronomical Factors on the Inflow of the Qiantang River Basin

作　　者：马文升 卢名燊 吕小锋 刘攀[2] 程磊 MA Wen-sheng;LU Ming-shen;LÜXiao-feng;LIU Pan;CHENG Lei(Fuchunjiang Hydropower Plant,State Grid Xinyuan Group Co.Ltd.,Tonglu 311504,Zhejiang Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国网新源集团有限公司富春江水力发电厂,浙江桐庐311504 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第7期41-47,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

摘　　要：天文因子是流域来水的影响因素之一,不同的天文因子对流域来水的影响程度和影响规律不同。为探究影响钱塘江流域来水最主要的天文因子及其对流域来水的影响规律,采用线性相关系数法、互信息法和灰色关联度法等相关性分析方法,对太阳黑子相对数、月球赤纬角、24节气阴历日期等26个天文因子进行分析识别,并统计分析主要天文因子与流域来水之间的变化规律。结果如下:①线性相关系数法、互信息法和灰色关联度法的结果显示月球赤纬角与钱塘江流域来水的相关性最大,表明月球赤纬角是对钱塘江流域来水影响最大的天文因子;②月球赤纬角由大变小时流域来水偏丰,丰水年概率为46.4%,而由小变大时来水偏枯,枯水年概率为54.5%,且容易发生极端来水;③在月球赤纬角峰年期来水偏枯,枯水年概率为66.7%,且特枯水年频发,而在谷年期极端来水频发,50%的年份为极端来水。研究结果可为钱塘江流域未来长期径流演变分析以及洪水预报等提供依据和支撑。Astronomical factor is one of the important factors in the regional river flow,but different astronomical factors have different degrees of influence and patterns on the runoff of the basin.To investigate the most important astronomical factors affecting the runoff of the Qiantang River Basin and their influence on the runoff of the basin,this paper identifies 26 astronomical factors such as sunspot relative number,lunar declination angle and 24 solar terms by using the methods of linear correlation,mutual information and gray correlation analysis and analyses the variation patterns between the major astronomical factor and the runoff of the basin.The main conclusions are as follows:①Based on methods of linear correlation,mutual information and gray correlation analysis,the results of correlation analysis has shown that the lunar declination angle is the most influential astronomical factor on the inflow of the Qiantang River Basin;②the runoff of the basin is abundant and the probability of wet year is 46.4%when the lunar declination angle changes from large to small,while the probability of dry year is 54.5%,and it is prone to extreme year when the lunar declination angle changes from large to small;③the probability of dry year is about 66.7%and extreme dry year is frequent as well during the peak of lunar declination,whereas the extreme events happens frequently with 50%of the years being extreme during the trough of lunar declination.The results can provide a certain support for future long-term runoff evolution analysis and flood forecasting in the Qiantang River basin.

关 键 词：太阳黑子相对数 月球赤纬角 24节气阴历日期 来水规律 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P344