海河流域不同等级降水对水资源衰减影响研究  

The Impacts of Different Levels of Precipitation on Water Resources Attenuation in the Haihe River Basin

作　　者：马梦阳 赵勇[1] 王庆明[1] 刘蓉 李恩冲 MA Meng-yang;ZHAO Yong;WANG Qing-ming;LIU Rong;LI En-chong(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第7期55-62,共8页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200204);国家自然科学基金项目(52025093)。

摘　　要：受气候变化和人类活动等因素的影响,海河流域是我国目前水资源量衰减最为严重的区域之一。为了研究海河流域水资源量演变的影响因素,考虑到年内降水强度等级的变化,基于气象观测数据以及海河流域第3次水资源评价和水资源公报,利用线性斜率、M-K趋势检验和t检验分析了1956-2019年海河流域水资源总量、不同等级降水量、潜在蒸散发的变化规律。利用M-K突变检验分析了海河流域水资源总量突变时间点,并利用偏最小二乘回归分析了各气象因素以及下垫面改变对突变前后水资源总量变化的定量贡献。结果表明:①海河流域水资源总量变化速率为-30.48亿m^(3)/10 a,呈显著下降趋势,并在1980年发生突变,突变前后水资源总量由410.9亿m^(3)下降到299.0亿m^(3)。②突变前后,小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨和潜在蒸散发分别下降8.34、6.69、12.96、21.17和19.1 mm。其中,小雨、中雨、大雨和潜在蒸散发下降不显著,暴雨下降显著。③水资源总量下降的111.9亿m^(3)中,小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨、潜在蒸散发、下垫面的贡献分别为-8.0亿m^(3)(7%)、-5.2亿m^(3)(5%)、-16.0亿m^(3)(14%)、-34.7亿m^(3)(30%)、1.2亿m^(3)(1%)和-49.1亿m^(3)(43%)。暴雨量减少和下垫面变化是海河流域水资源量减少的主要因素。研究为海河流域制定可持续的水资源开发利用方案提供科学依据。Influenced by climate change,human activities,and other factors,the Haihe River Basin(HRB)is one of the regions with the most severe water resources decline in China.To study the influencing factors of the evolution of water resources in the HRB,taking into account the changes in precipitation intensity levels within the year,based on meteorological observation data,the third water resources assessment and water resources bulletin in the HRB,this paper uses the linear slope,M-K trend test,and t-test to analyze the variation in the total amount of water resources,different levels of precipitation,and potential evapotranspiration in the HRB from 1956 to 2019.The M-K mutation test is used to analyze the abrupt change time of the total water resources in the HRB,and the partial least squares regression is used to analyze the quantitative contributions of meteorological factors and underlying surface changes on the variations in the total water resources before and after the abrupt change.The results show that:①The total amount of water resources in the HRB decreased significantly at a rate of 3.048 billion m^(3)/10 a,and an abrupt change occurred in 1980.Before and after the abrupt change,the total water resources decreased from 41.09 billion m^(3) to 29.90 billion m^(3).②Before and after the mutation,light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain,torrential rain,and potential evapotranspiration decreased by 8.34,6.69,12.96,21.17,and 19.1 mm,respectively.Among them,light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain,and potential evapotranspiration decreased non-significantly,but torrential rain decreased significantly.③Among the 11.19 billion m^(3) of the decline in total water resources,the contributions of light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain,heavy rain,potential evapotranspiration,and underlying surface were-800 million m^(3)(7%),-520 million m^(3)(5%),-1.60 billion m^(3)(14%),-3.47 billion m^(3)(30%),120 million m^(3)(1%)and-4.91 billion m^(3)(43%),respectively.The reduction of torrential rainfall and the underlying surface changes w

关 键 词：降水等级 水资源量 影响因素分析 海河流域 偏最小二乘回归 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]