湖南省“水资源-经济社会-生态环境”耦合系统协调发展评价  

Evaluation of Coordinated Development of Coupling System of“Water Resources-Economic Society-Ecological Environment”in Hunan Province

作　　者：苏莹 董增川[1] 崔璨 韩亚雷 王新奎 杨家亮 王昱璋 龙秋波 SU Ying;DONG Zeng-chuan;CUI Can;HAN Ya-ei;WANG Xin-kui;YANG Jia-iang;WANG Yu-zhang;LONG Qiu-bo(College of Hydrology and Water resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;Hunan Water Resources and Hydropower Survey,Design,Planning and Research Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410007,Hunan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]湖南省水利水电勘测设计规划研究总院有限公司,湖南长沙410007

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第7期63-73,共11页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：湖南省重大水利科技专项(XSKJ2021000-05);湖南省重点领域研发计划(2020SK2129)。

摘　　要：水资源、经济社会与生态环境间存在相互作用的互馈机制,三者共同构成水资源复合系统。探究复合系统耦合现状,分析其中的主要影响因素,对促进系统未来可持续协调发展具有关键意义。结合湖南省水资源状况、经济社会发展和生态环境保护等方面现阶段存在的特点和问题,运用定量数据分析方法,建立了含有28项指标的水资源经济社会生态环境系统耦合协调评价指标体系,采用基于博弈论的AHP-CRITIC组合赋权法确定指标权重,通过耦合协调模型对湖南省14个地级行政区2005-2020年间水资源经济社会生态环境系统耦合协调时空演变特征作出评价,并采用障碍度分析模型对复合系统耦合协调度的影响因素进行诊断分析。结果表明:近年来湖南省水资源、生态环境子系统综合评价指数均有所回升,复合系统综合评价指数整体呈不显著上升趋势,其变化过程主要受到水资源子系统评价指数影响;现阶段3个子系统间耦合度处于高水平耦合状态,除湘潭市外的其余地区均处于协调发展状态,系统整体耦合协调度基本稳定在中级协调水平,总体上向好的方向发展。根据三大子系统的发展变化趋势以及指标的障碍因子识别可知,水资源和经济社会成为影响湖南省未来可持续发展的主要因素,是解决湖南省现存问题、实现未来可持续协调发展的重点把控方向。There is a mutual feeding mechanism among water resources,economic society and ecological environment,which constitutes the water resources complex system.Exploring the coupling status of the composite system and analyzing the main influencing factors are of key significance to promoting the sustainable and coordinated development of the system in the future.Combined with the current characteristics and problems of Hunan Province’s water resources status,economic society development and ecological environmental protection,a coupled and coordinated evaluation index system of water resources,economic society and ecological environment system containing 28 indicators is established by using quantitative data analysis method,and the weight of indicators are determined by AHP-CRITIC combination weighting method based on game theory.The spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the coupling coordination of the water resources,economic society and ecological environment system in 14 administrative regions of Hunan Province during 2005-2020 are evaluated through the coupling coordination model,and the obstacle degree analysis model is used to diagnose and analyze the influencing factors of coupling coordination degree of composite system.The results show that in recent years,the comprehensive evaluation index of water resources and ecological environment subsystems in Hunan Province has rebounded,and the overall comprehensive evaluation index of the composite system has shown an insignificant upward trend,and its change process is mainly affected by the evaluation index of water resources subsystem.At present,the coupling degree among the three subsystems is in a high level coupling state,and other regions except Xiangtan City are in a coordinated development state.The overall coupling and coordination degree of the system is basically stable at the intermediate coordination level,and generally develops in a good direction.According to the development and changing trend of the three subsystems and the identification

关 键 词：水资源 经济社会 生态环境 耦合协调度 障碍因子 湖南省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]