中国进出口对RCEP14国贸易冲击效应研究  

Study on the Impact of China's Import and Export on the Trade of the 14 RCEPs

作　　者：王厚双[1] 汪海峰 张倩[1,2] WANG Hou-shuang;WANG Hai-feng;ZHANG Qian(School of Finance and Trade,Liaoning University,Shenyang Liaoning 110036,China;School of Economics and Management,Guangxi University of Science and Technology,Liuzhou Guangxi 545006,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学金融与贸易学院,辽宁沈阳110036 [2]广西科技大学经济与管理学院,广西柳州545006

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2023年第5期78-84,共7页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA053,18ZDA036);辽宁省教育厅智库项目(LZK202001,LZK202002);广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(2018KY0306)。

摘　　要：选取BACI数据库1995—2019年产品级贸易数据,将中国与其他RCEP成员国贸易的互补性和竞争性量化为贸易冲击效应并加以比较,研究发现:中国进口贸易对其他RCEP国家的需求效应大于出口贸易产生的供给效应,RCEP的签订有利于促进亚太经济一体化和其他成员国的经济增长;中国对东盟国家产生的需求效应更大,距离中国越近的RCEP国家受到的经济增长的辐射效应越强;中国对其他RCEP国家价值链下游行业产生的需求效应更大,对价值链上游行业存在影响但不显著。因此,中国应加强与RCEP国家的贸易往来,充分发挥供需交互效应,实现区域经济一体化协同发展。Based on the product level trade data from 1995 to 2019 in BACI database,the trade complementarity and competitiveness between China and other RCEP member countries are quantified as trade shock effects and compared.The study finds that:The demand effect of China's import trade on other RCEP countries is greater than the supply effect of export trade.The signing of RCEP is conducive to promoting Asia Pacific Economic Integration and economic growth of other member countries;China has a greater demand effect on ASEAN countries,and the closer the RCEP countries are to China,the stronger the radiation effect of economic growth;China has greater demand effect on downstream industries of the value chain of other RCEP countries,but has no significant impact on upstream industries of the value chain.Therefore,China should strengthen trade exchanges with RCEP countries,give full play to the interaction between supply and demand,and realize the coordinated development of regional economic integration.

关 键 词：亚太经济一体化 需求效应 供给效应 

分 类 号：F131.3[经济管理—世界经济]