基于大数据技术的田径强国运动员竞技黄金年龄预测——以100 m、竞走、铅球项目为例的可视化分析  

Exploration of Athletics Powerhouses and Prediction of Athletes’Golden Age in Track and Field through Big Data Technology——A Visual Analysis of 100 m Sprint,Racewalking and Shot Put Events

作　　者：张琳[1,2] 刘耀荣 杨淳宇[4] 文恺 张展 Zhang Lin;Liu Yaorong;Yang Chunyu;Wen Kai;Zhang Zhan(Information Construction Department of Xi’an Physical Education University,Xi’an 710068,Shaanxi China;不详)

机构地区：[1]西安体育学院信息化建设处,陕西西安710068 [2]西安交通大学生命科学与技术学院,陕西西安710049 [3]西安体育学院体育教育学院,陕西西安710068 [4]西安体育学院研究生部,陕西西安710068

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2023年第6期1-5,42,共6页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

基　　金：中国田径协会科技攻关与科技服务项目(项目编号:TJQS-ZX-20220003);陕西省研究生教育综合改革研究与实践项目(项目编号:2020SJG88)。

摘　　要：本研究旨在从全球视角探讨不同竞技项目间可能存在的项目强国以及运动员竞技年龄差异。为此,甄选了100 m、竞走和铅球3个热门田径项目,利用Python、Power BI、SPSS Modeler等软件对国际田径联合会(IAAF)记录名单中全球最佳的7682名运动员人口学信息(包括性别、年龄和国籍)及历史竞技表现积分数据展开挖掘和分析。结果显示:3个项目选手性别比例较为均衡;美国(USA)和牙买加(JAM)等第一集团国家的精英运动员数量最多;竞走是中国(CHN)、西班牙(ESP)、日本(JPN)和意大利(ITA)的优势项目;世界优秀运动员的最佳竞技年龄主要集中在21~31岁,其中100 m运动员最显年轻,竞走运动员平均年龄最大。综上所述,竞技体育存在项目强国和竞技黄金年龄,本研究期望为各国间开展交流合作、制定合理的体育发展战略,以及竞技体育个性化项目选材、科学设计训练计划提供参考。This study aims to investigate athletics powerhouses and potential differences in athletes’competition age across various events on a global scale.To achieve this objective,three prominent track and field events,namely the 100-meter sprint,racewalking,and shot put were chosen for analysis.Demographic data,including gender,age,and nationality,along with historical performance score of the world’s top 7682 athletes listed by the International Association of Athletics Federations(IAAF),were analyzed and explored using Python,Power BI,SPSS Modeler and other software tools.The findings indicated a relatively equitable gender distribution among athletes across the three events,with the highest representation of elite competitors hailing from prominent nations such as the United States(USA)and Jamaica(JAM).Racewalking was a strength event for China(CHN),Spain(ESP),Japan(JPN),and Italy(ITA).The competitive peak age of elite athletes worldwide was mainly concentrated between 21~31 years old,with sprinters being the youngest and racewalkers having the highest average age.In summary,there exist dominant athletics powerhouses and a golden age for athletes in competitive sports.This study hopes to provide a reference for international exchange and cooperation,the development of rational sports strategies,as well as personalized selection of competitive events and scientific design of training plans.

关 键 词：竞技体育 大数据技术 项目强国 竞技年龄 田径 

分 类 号：G820.3[文化科学—体育训练]