我国体育娱乐用品类商品零售价格指数分析与预测——基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型  

Analysis and Prediction of the Retail Price Index of Sports and Entertainment Commodities in China——Based on the Grey System GM(1,1)Model

作　　者：张永波 Zhang Yongbo(JiShou university,School of Physical Education,Jishou 416000,Hunan China)

机构地区：[1]吉首大学体育学院,湖南吉首416000

出　　处：《体育科技文献通报》2023年第6期209-210,220,共3页Bulletin of Sport Science & Technology

摘　　要：受疫情影响,体育娱乐用品类商品价格波动较大,研究我国体育、娱乐用品类市场零售价格指数的变化趋势,可以为体育娱乐用品类商品零售类发展提供科学的依据。本文使用2013—2020年体育娱乐用品类商品零售价格指数数据建立GM(1,1)模型,并对模型进行检验,逐步缩小数据时间跨度,得到2017—2020年数据所建模型最优,模型为:X^(1)(k+1)=-20271.005e^(-0.004985035k)+20371.605。利用该模型预测2021—2024年体育娱乐用品类商品零售价格指数值为(99.30,98.81,98.32,97.83)。Affected by the epidemic,the price of sports and entertainment commodities fluctuates greatly.Studying the change trend of the retail price index of sports and entertainment commodities in China,and providing a scientific basis for the development of retail prices of sports and entertainment commodities.In this paper,we used the GM(1,1)model was established by using the retail price index data of sports and entertainment commodities from 2013 to 2020,tested the model,and gradually narrowed the data time span to obtain the optimal data model from 2017 to 2020.The model is:X^(1)(k+1)=-20271.005e^(-0.004985035k)+20371.605.Using this model,predicting the retail price index value of sports and entertainment category commodities from 2021 to 2024 is(99.30,98.81,98.32,97.83).

关 键 词：体育娱乐用品 价格指数 灰色预测 最优模型 

分 类 号：G80-052[文化科学—运动人体科学]