基于随机森林的地质灾害潜在财产损失空间预测——以西藏昌都为例  

Spatial Prediction of Potential Property Loss by Geological Hazards based on Random Forest——A Case Study of Chamdo,Tibet

作　　者：支泽民 刘峰贵 陈琼[1,2] 夏兴生 周强[1,2] ZHI Zemin;LIU Fenggui;CHEN Qiong;XIA Xingsheng;ZHOU Qiang(College of Geography,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China;Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China)

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学地理科学学院,青海西宁810008 [2]青海师范大学高原科学与可持续发展研究院,青海西宁810008

出　　处：《高原科学研究》2023年第2期21-30,共10页Plateau Science Research

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0906-02).

摘　　要：作为受地质灾害影响最为严重的国家之一,地质灾害每年给中国造成严重的经济损失。作为灾后应急响应与灾情评估的重要依据,快速精准的灾害损失评估就变的极为重要。文章以西藏自治区昌都市为研究区,选取地质灾害隐患点以及土地利用等数据,基于ArcGIS对昌都市地质灾害空间分布特征进行分析,基于随机森林回归方程构建了昌都市地质灾害潜在财产损失评估模型,对昌都市的潜在财产损失进行评估。研究发现:(1)昌都市的高山峡谷区地质灾害隐患在水平空间分布上具有明显的沿河流与道路分布的集聚特征;在垂直空间分布上,不同灾害类型的占比具有明显差异;(2)从经济损失来看,地质灾害主要对道路威胁较大,其次是居民建筑、耕地与林地。同时,基于实际地质灾害隐患数据构建的潜在财产损失评估模型能够为区域地质灾害损失快速评估提供有效的参考,为同类型区域地质灾害损失的快速评估提供一种具有参考价值的定量评估方法。China as one of the countries of the most severely affected by geological disasters causes serious economic losses every year.As an important basis for post-disaster emergency response and disaster assessment,rapid and accurate disaster damage assessment is extremely important.The spatial distribution characteristic of geological hazards in Chamdo was analyzed using ArcGIS based on the selected geological hazard potential sites and land use data in the study area.A potential property loss assessment model of geological hazards in Chamdo was constructed based on random forest regression equation and the potential property loss of Chamdo was also evaluated.The potential geological disasters in the high mountain valley area in Chamdo showed an obvious clustering characteristic in spatial distribution along rivers and roads horizontally and there are significant differences in the proportion of different types of disasters in terms of vertical spatial distribution.The geological disasters mainly pose a significant threat to roads followed by residential buildings,agricultural land and forest land in terms of economic losses.Meanwhile,the potential property loss assessment model constructed based on latent data of actual geological hazard can provide effective reference for rapid assessment of regional geological hazard losses,and provide a quantitative assessment method with reference value for rapid assessment of geological hazard losses in the same type of region.

关 键 词：地质灾害 昌都市 财产损失 随机森林 Ripley′s K函数 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]