基于CMIP6的分权多模式集合对福建省的降水模拟评价  

Evaluation of Precipitation Simulation Based on Weighted Multi-model Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 in Fujian Province

作　　者：涂圣哲 李新通[1] TU Shengzhe;LI Xintong(School of Geographical Sciences,School of Carbon Neutrality Future Technology,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理科学学院、碳中和未来技术学院,福州350117

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2023年第2期111-119,共9页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：福建省水利厅科技重点项目([3500]FJTH[DY]2018012)。

摘　　要：为探究分权多模式集合平均在降水模拟上的可行性,基于福建省72个台站观测数据与5个CMIP6全球气候模式的降水数据,联合优劣解距离法与秩和比法两种综合评价法,对5个CMIP6模式的不同统计指标进行综合评价,由此形成分权多模式集合平均(WMME),并与等权多模式集合平均(MME)进行比较。结果表明,在综合得分上,WMME的得分高于MME与其他5个模式,且各项统计指标均相对较好。在相对误差上,两者均对降水模拟偏低,且在秋冬两季的相对误差绝对值大于春夏两季,但WMME相较于MME有所改善。在对6种极端降水指数的模拟评价中,WMME对各项的泰勒技巧得分均优于MME,但所有模式对连续干旱天数的模拟均较差,对最大连续五日降水的模拟均较好。In order to explore the feasibility of weighted multi-model ensemble mean(WMME)in precipitation simulation,based on the observation data of 72 meteorological stations in Fujian Province and the precipitation data of 5 CMIP6 global climate models,multiple statistical indicators of 5 models were comprehensively evaluated by TOPSIS and RSR comprehensive evaluation methods,and WMME was formed and compared with multi-model ensemble mean(MME).The results show that in terms of comprehensive scores,the score of WMME is higher than that of MME and other five modes,and each statistical indicator of WMME is relatively better than others.In terms of relative errors,the precipitation simulations of both are low,and the absolute value of relative errors in autumn and winter is greater than that in spring and summer,but WMME is improved compared with MME.In the simulation evaluation of six kinds of extreme precipitation indices,the Taylor skill score of WMME is better than that of MME,but all models are poor in the simulation of consecutive dry days and better in the simulation of maximum consecutive five-day precipitation amount.

关 键 词：CMIP6 分权多模式集合平均 等权多模式集合平均 福建省 降水模拟评价 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]