气象因素对淮安市呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的影响  

Effect of meteorological factors on daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases in Huai′an City

作　　者：徐梦颖[1] 骆善彩 谢真珍[1] 秦成云[1] XU Meng-ying;LUO Shan-cai;XIE Zhen-zhen;QIN Cheng-yun(Huai'an Municipal Meteorological Bureau,Jiangsu Huai'an 223003,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]淮安市气象局,江苏淮安223003 [2]淮安市疾病预防与控制中心

出　　处：《江苏预防医学》2023年第2期156-159,共4页Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的了解气象因素对淮安市呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的影响。方法收集2018—2019年淮安市城区3家医院呼吸系统疾病日门诊量及同期气象数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)评估气象因素对呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的影响。结果2018—2019年,3家医院呼吸系统疾病日平均门诊量为790.68人次,Spearman相关分析发现呼吸系统疾病日门诊量与日平均气温(r=-0.66,P<0.05)、相对湿度(r=-0.26,P<0.05)均呈负相关。DLNM模型结果显示低温和高温、低湿和高湿均导致呼吸系统疾病日门诊量的增加,且存在累积滞后效应。日平均气温≤16℃时,每降低1℃,累积效应在滞后1 d(lag1)~滞后12 d(lag12)出现危害效应,在lag7达到最大值,健康风险增加1.99%(1.64%~2.34%);日平均气温>16℃时,每增加1℃,累积效应在lag1~lag7出现危害效应,在lag4达到最大值,健康风险增加1.64%(1.44%~1.85%)(P值均<0.05)。相对湿度≤78%时,每降低10%,累积效应在lag1~lag7、lag9~lag10出现危害效应,在lag1达到最大值,健康风险增加2.56%(1.91%~3.21%);相对湿度>78%时,每增加10%,累积效应在lag1~lag6出现危害效应,在lag3达到最大值,健康风险增加1.78%(1.55%~2.01%)(P值均<0.05)。结论淮安市日均气温、相对湿度与呼吸系统疾病日门诊量密切相关,高温、低温及高湿、低湿均会造成发病风险升高,低温、低湿危害效应更强。Objective To investigate the effect of meteorological factors on daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases in Huai′an City.Methods The daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases were collected from three hospitals in urban areas of Huai′an City from 2018 to 2019,and the meteorological data were captured during the same period.The impact of meteorological factors on daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases was evaluated using a distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM).Results The daily mean outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases were 790.68 person-times in 3 hospitals from 2018 to 2019.Spearman correlation analysis showed that the daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases correlated negatively with daily mean temperature(r=-0.66,P 0.05)and relative humidity(r=-0.26,P<0.05).DLNM analysis showed that low temperature,high temperature,low humidity and high humidity all caused an increase in daily outpatient visits due to respiratory diseases,with cumulative lag effects seen.If the daily mean temperature was 16℃ and below,a reduction in air temperature by 1℃ causedharmful effects at one-day lag(lag1)to lag12,and the cumulative effect peaked at lag7,with a 1.99% increase in health risk(1.64%-2.34%).If the daily mean temperature was above 16°C,an increase in air temperature by 1℃ causedharmful effects at lag1 to lag7,and the cumulative effect peaked at lag4,with a 1.64% increase in health risk(1.44%-1.85%)(all P values<0.05).If the relative humidity was 78% and lower,a reduction in relative humidity by 10%causedharmful effects at lag9 to lag10,and the cumulative effect peaked at lag1,with a 2.56%increase in health risk(1.91%-3.21%).If the relative humidity was higher than 78%,an increase inrelative humidity by 10%caused harmful effects at lag1 to lag6,and the cumulative effect peaked at lag3,with a 1.78% increase in health risk(1.55%-2.01%)(all P values0.05).Conclusion The daily mean temperature and relative humidity are strongly associated with outpatient visits du

关 键 词：呼吸系统疾病 气象因素 广义相加模型 分布滞后非线性模型 

分 类 号：R122.2[医药卫生—环境卫生学]