使用术前人群HIV筛查数据估算某县艾滋病发现率  

Estimating the diagnosed proportion by the preoperative HIV-testing data in a county

作　　者：牛瑾[1] 李会兰[2] 王伟 罗红兵[1] 肖民扬 付丽茹[1] 王晓雯[1] 张祖样 宋丽军[1] 李雪华[1] NIU Jin;LI Hui-lan;WANG Wei;LUO Hong-bin;XIAO Min-yang;FU Li-ru;WANG Xiao-wen;ZHANG Zu-yang;SONG Li-jun;LI Xue-hua(Yunnan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Kunming,Yunnan 650022,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]云南省疾病预防控制中心,云南昆明650022 [2]普洱市疾病预防控制中心 [3]澜沧县疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第12期2118-2122,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：“十三五”科技重大专项(2018ZX10715006)。

摘　　要：目的 使用术前HIV筛查数据,应用两种方法进行县级艾滋病发现率的估算,为县级艾滋病发现率的估计方法的推荐提供参考依据。方法 选择云南省普洱市澜沧县为研究现场,收集澜沧县所有开展手术的医疗机构的2018-2020年术前HIV筛查人群的性别、年龄、检测结果、以及对应年份的当地人口学数据和检测发现的现存活艾滋病病毒感染者人数等信息。使用术前检测人群年龄标化感染率和吴尊友等人创立的术前检测率推算法两种方法进行2018-2020年发现率估算,其中2018年术前数据进行测算,2019和2020年术前数据进行结果稳定性的评价。结果 研究地区澜沧县使用术前人群年龄标化HIV感染率方法估算2018年发现率为89.0%(87.8%~90.2%),使用吴尊友等人创立的术前检测率推算法估算的2018年的发现率分别为85.2%(71.9%~96.2%)和84.5%(68.2%~94.5%)。两种方法估计出的发现率无统计学差异。2019和2020年发现率分别为83.6%和87.4%,与HIV抗体检测人次数占当地人口的比例变化一致。2021年全年和2022的新发现感染者逐渐减少,不会超过2020年估计数。结论 在现存活感染者大于1 000人的县(市、区),使用术前检测数据进行艾滋病发现率的估计具有一定的可行性。估算结果具有一定稳定性和可靠性。但该方法对疫情较轻的县(市、区)发现率估算的适用性有待进一步研究。Objective To estimate the diagnosed proportion of HIV-infected persons at county level by applying the pre-surgery HIV test data,so as to provide the information on the estimation methods of county level.Methods Lancang County of Pu'er City was selected as the study field.The gender,age and HIV-testig results of the surgery people in all hospital was collected from 2018 to 2020,meanwhile,the total size of the population and the number of HIV-infected diagnosed persons living in Lancang was also collected.Two methods were used to estimate the diagnosed proportion:one is to estimate the total number of HIV-infected persons by age standardized HIV-positive rate of the surgery people;the other is to estimate the rate that persons received pre-surgery HIV-test that established by Wu Zunyou et al.Results According to the method that by age standardized HIV-positive rate,the diagnosed proportion in Lancang was 89%(95%CI:87.8%-90.2%).Using the method that the rate persons received pre-surgery HIV-test,the diagnosed proportion for two formula was 85.2%(95% CI:71.9%-96.2%)and 84.5%(95% CI:68.2%-94.5%)respectively.There was no statistical difference between the two methods.The diagnosed proportion in 2019 and 2020 was 83.6%and 87.4%respectively,and the result was coincided with the proportion of HIV testing in the local population.The number of new reported in 2021 and 2022 had gradually decreased,and would not exceed the estimated number in 2020.Conclusion Estimating the diagnosed proportion by using the pre-surgery HIV testing data is applicability in the county with more than 1000 HIV-infected persons.The estimation results of the two methods are stable and reliable,However,the applicability of this method in counties with mild epidemic needs further research.

关 键 词：艾滋病 术前HIV检测 发现率 估算 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]