人口老龄化、货币政策效果及传导渠道  

Population Aging and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Transmission Channels

作　　者：翟光宇[1,2] 王超 姜美君[1,2] ZHAI Guangyu;WANG Chao;JIANG Meijun(School of Finance,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学金融学院,辽宁大连116025 [2]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第4期1-18,共18页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72103033);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(21YJC790154);辽宁省社科规划基金项目(L20BJY029);2021年度辽宁省普通高等教育本科教学改革研究项目“高等教育新时代财经院校教师教学评价改革的实践--基于本科学生评教指标优化的研究”;东北财经大学2022年度提升社会服务能力建设项目(SF-Y202209)的资助。

摘　　要：我国已步入老龄化社会,人口年龄结构变化对宏观经济环境和经济政策将产生深远影响。在此背景下,研究人口老龄化对货币政策效果的影响机制具有重要理论价值和现实意义。本文在理论分析的基础上,首先选取1990—2021年中国宏观时间序列数据,使用SVAR基准模型和IVAR拓展模型对人口年龄结构影响货币政策的总体效果进行实证分析,进而选取中国1994—2020年30个样本省市自治区的面板数据,将老年抚养比引入货币政策效果方程。时间序列和面板数据的实证结果均发现,人口老龄化削弱了数量型和价格型货币政策的有效性,同时面板数据证明了人口年龄结构是货币政策效果区域异质性产生的原因之一。最后本文进一步探索人口老龄化削弱货币政策效果的具体渠道,通过对沪深交易所部分A股上市公司和上市商业银行微观数据进行分析,发现人口老龄化可通过信贷渠道和利率渠道削弱货币政策效果。本文结论提示,在制定和执行货币政策时,有必要考虑人口因素。During the 1990s,the United States experienced a period of stable economic growth and moderate inflation,which was once considered a huge success in monetary policy.Likewise,China achieved an excellent economic growth rate from 2000 to 2010.Although economies worldwide were affected by the global subprime crisis,they successfully emerged from a V-shaped reversal in 2009,which also highlighted the effectiveness of monetary policy adjustments.After 2010,however,Europe and Japan began to implement unconventional monetary policy measures.While negative interest rates began to appear,the economic growth since then is still not optimistic.China has moderately eased its monetary policy many times since 2014,but its economic growth rate has been L-shaped.From the perspective of China and advanced economies,monetary policies have been relatively effective or even ineffective rather than effective.This paper explores why the effect of monetary policy varies so dramatically in different periods.In this paper,we argue that more attention should be paid to the relationship between population aging and the effect of monetary policy.As the population ages,the supply of labor is weakened and the aggregate supply curve is relatively steep.Due to the elderly population's low demand,the effectiveness of the expansionary monetary policy to drive aggregate demand is relatively weakened,which will lead to a higher price level.In addition,it is necessary to further examine the regional effect of monetary policy from the perspective of population aging.Due to regional characteristics and labor mobility,the age structure in provinces and cities has formed a regional imbalance.In addition,the response of economic activities to monetary policy changes also shows heterogeneity.This paper studies the channel through which the aging Chinese population affects the effects of monetary policy at the micro level.On the one hand,the aging population will reduce interest rates and the demand for social investments and social interest rate sensitivi

关 键 词：人口老龄化 货币政策 传导渠道 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学] C924.24[社会学—人口学] F124