俄乌冲突后美国主流智库对台政策认知及其影响  

Mainstream U.S.Think Tanks'Perceptions of U.S.Policy Towards Taiwan after the Russia-Ukraine Conflict and Their Implications

作　　者：周文星 姚寰宇 Zhou Wenxing;Yao Huanyu(School of International Studies,Nanjing University;Huazhi Institute for Global Governance,Nanjing University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系学院 [2]南京大学华智全球治理研究院 [3]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《台海研究》2023年第1期148-162,共15页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：2021年度国家社科基金青年项目“美国国会立法干涉台湾问题的规律、风险与对策研究(1973~2021)”(项目编号:21CGJ047);2021年江苏省“双创博士”项目(项目编号:JSSCBS20210049)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国智库在美国外交政策过程中扮演着关键角色。本文以六家美国主流智库为研究对象,通过分析智库主要研究人员自2022年2月俄乌冲突爆发以来发表的代表性涉台研究,把握美国战略界人士对台政策总体取向及在具体议题上的共识与分歧,为中方制定更具针对性的应对策略提供参考。研究发现,美国主流智库倾向于将俄乌冲突与台海紧张局势进行粗浅、错误的类比,主张从冲突中总结经验并运用于台海冲突情境,助推拜登政府加速调整对台政策。美国智库对台政策认知的“乌克兰化”趋势,将为中美关系及地区和平稳定带来更多不确定性。The U.S.think tanks play a key role in American foreign policy-making process.Taking six mainstream U.S.think tanks as the research object,this paper analyzes representative Taiwan-related researches by major experts from these think tanks that have been published since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022.This paper aims to grasp the general orientation of U.S.Taiwan policy by American strategic circles,and consensus on as well as divergence of specific issues concerning Taiwan.By doing this,the paper is dedicated to providing policy reference for China to make more targeted policies concerning the U.S.It argues that mainstream U.S.think tanks tend to draw a shallow and wrong analogy between the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions across the Taiwan Strait,advocating drawing lessons from the conflict and applying them to a conflict-scenario across the Strait,and therefore help the Biden administration accelerate the adjustment of U.S.Taiwan policy.The trend of"Ukrainization"of U.S.think tanks'perceptions of U.S.Taiwan policy is expected to bring more uncertainties to China-U.S.relations and regional peace and stability.

关 键 词：美国智库 美国对台政策 俄乌冲突 乌克兰化 美国对华政策 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学] D822.371.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]