应用Spectrum模型估计贵州省梅毒疫情及病例发现水平  

Estimation of Syphilis Epidemic and Case Detection Level in Guizhou Province by Spectrum Model

作　　者：郑敏[1] 钱晓涵 陶锐[1] 马琳 周凤 朱志霖 姚永明[1] ZHENG Min;QIAN Xiaohan;TAO Rui;MA Lin;ZHOU Feng;ZHU Zhilin;YAO Yongming(Guizhou Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guiyang 550004,China;School of Public Health and Health,Guizhou Medical University,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省疾病预防控制中心,贵州贵阳550004 [2]贵州医科大学公共卫生与健康学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《中国皮肤性病学杂志》2023年第6期690-696,共7页The Chinese Journal of Dermatovenereology

基　　金：贵州省科技厅科技支撑项目(黔科合支撑〔2021〕一般026);贵州省卫生健康委科学基金项目(gzwkj2022-461)。

摘　　要：目的应用Spectrum-STI模型估计贵州省成人梅毒疫情,为梅毒传播的防治提供科学依据。方法以Spectrum-DemProj模块和贵州省2010—2020年人口学数据为基础,在STI模块中对不同人群规模、梅毒感染率等数据进行拟合,得到人群的梅毒患病率、发病率及流行曲线。结果Spectrum-STI模型拟合结果显示,2011—2021年全人群梅毒患病率及发病率均呈现下降趋势,患病率从0.71%下降到0.36%,其中男性从0.74%下降到0.43%,女性从0.67%下降到0.28%;发病率从2011年的249/10万下降到2021年的129/10万,其中男性从270/10万下降到161/10万,女性从226/10万下降到93/10万;男性发病率和患病率均高于女性。梅毒发病率最高的前三位人群分别是男男性行为人群(men who have sex with men,MSM)、嫖客和女性性工作者(female sex worker,FSW),2021年分别高达2447/10万、1685/10万、427/10万。模型估计的新发病例数逐年下降,而每年实际报告的梅毒病例数逐年上升,报告数占估计新发病例数的比例从9.91%上升到62.75%。结论根据模型估计结果,2011—2021年期间贵州省全人群梅毒患病率和发病率均呈逐年下降趋势,但重点人群患病率和发病率仍然较高,应继续扩大检测,最大限度发现病例,及早规范诊疗,减少进一步传播。Objective To estimate the prevalence of adult syphilis in Guizhou Province by Spectrum-STI model,so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of syphilis transmission.Methods Based on DemProj module and demographic data of Guizhou Province from 2010 to 2020,the data of different population size and syphilis infection rate were fitted in the STI module to obtain the prevalence,incidence and epidemic curve of syphilis.Results The results of the spectrum-STI model showed that the prevalence and incidence of syphilis had a downward trend from 2011 to 2021,in the whole population.The prevalence rate decreased from 0.71%to 0.36%,among which men decreased from 0.74%to 0.43%,and women decreased from 0.67%to 0.28%.The incidence rate decreased from 249/100000 in 2011 to 129/100000 in 2021,among which males decreased from 270/100000 to 161/100000 and females decreased from 226/100000 to 93/100000.The incidence and prevalence of male were higher than female.The top three populations with the highest incidence of syphilis were men having sex with men(MSM),clients and female sex workers,which were as high as 2447/100000,1685/100000 and 427/100000,in 2021 respectively.The number of new cases estimated by the model decreased year by year,while the number of syphilis cases actually reported increased year by year,from 9.91%to 62.75%of the estimated new cases.Conclusion According to the model results,the prevalence and incidence of syphilis in the whole population of Guizhou Province from 2011 to 2021 show a downward trend year by year,but the prevalence and incidence of key populations are still high.It is necessary to continue to expand the detection,maximize the detection of cases,standardize the diagnosis and treatment as soon as possible,and reduce further transmission.

关 键 词：梅毒 Spectrum-STI 估计 患病率 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]