基于主成分分析法的江苏省水资源承载力评价  

Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province based on principal component analysis

作　　者：辛朋磊[1] 季晓云 单婷婷[1] 陈玮瑶 XIN Penglei;JI Xiaoyun;SHAN Tingting;CHEN Weiyao(Nantong Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nantong 320600,China;Nantong Urban Culvert Management Center,Nantong 320600,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏省水文水资源勘测局南通分局,江苏南通320600 [2]南通市市区涵闸管理中心,江苏南通320600

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2023年第7期27-32,共6页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

摘　　要：为科学评价江苏省水资源承载力,推动水资源与社会经济和生态环境可持续协调发展,从水资源、人口、经济、效率和环境5个方面构建了包含21个指标的水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用主成分分析法确定影响江苏省水资源承载力的主要驱动因子并阐述其影响机理。结果表明:影响江苏省水资源承载力的主要驱动因子是水资源供应因子、人口因子、经济发展因子和用水效率因子;2003~2020年,江苏省水资源承载力整体呈下降趋势,表明区域用水效率的提升未减轻社会经济发展对水资源的承载压力。建议江苏省在未来发展中应进一步强化节约用水,提升各行业用水效率。In order to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in Jiangsu Province scientifically and promote the sustainable and coordinated development of water resources with social,economy and ecological environment.An evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity containing 21 indexes was constructed from five aspects of water resources,population,economy,efficiency and environment.Principal component analysis was used to determine the main driving factors affecting water resources carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province and to elaborate the influencing mechanism.The results showed that the main driving factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity in Jiangsu Province were water resources supply,population,economic development and water use efficiency factor.From 2003 to 2020,the water resources carrying capacity showed a downward trend,indicating that the improvement of regional water use efficiency did not reduce the bearing pressure of social and economic development on water resources.In the future,Jiangsu Province should further strengthen water conservation and improve the efficiency of water use in all industries.

关 键 词：水资源承载力评价 主成分分析法 生态环境 江苏省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]