基于灰色系统理论的江西省水利基建投资与国民经济关系分析  

Analysis on relationship between water conservancy infrastructure construction investment and national economy in Jiangxi Province based on grey system theory

作　　者：谢彪 王兴 XIE Biao;WANG Xing(Jiangxi Hydrological Monitoring Center,Nanchang 330002,China;Jiangxi Water Investment Construction Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanchang 330029,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水文监测中心,江西南昌330002 [2]江西省水投建设集团有限公司,江西南昌330029

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2023年第7期71-75,共5页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：江西省水利政策研究课题(201813);江西省水利厅科技项目(KT201737)。

摘　　要：为研究水利基建投资与国民经济的相关关系,选取2009~2018年江西省水利基建投资数据,分析了水利基建主要投资方向,采用灰色系统理论,定性分析了水利基建总投资及主要投资指标与国民经济指标的相关关系。研究结果表明:水利基建总投资对GDP、农民可支配收入和财政收入影响较为显著,防洪工程、供水工程等投资子项对粮食作物产量、有效灌溉面积、就业人口影响较为显著。建议“十四五”期间持续加大水利基础设施投资,优先开展防洪工程和供水工程建设。In order to study the correlation between water conservancy infrastructure construction investment and the national economy,the statistical data of water conservancy infrastructure construction investment in Jiangxi Province from 2009 to 2018 were selected.By using the grey system theory,we studied and analyzed the main investment direction of water conservancy infrastructure construction,qualitatively analyzed the relationship of total investment of water conservancy infrastructure construction and the main investment indicators with the national economic indicators.The results showed that the total investment in water conservancy infrastructure construction had a significant impact on GDP,farmers disposable income and fiscal revenue,while the investment sub items of flood control projects and water supply projects had a significant impact on grain crop output,effective irrigated area and employment population.It is suggested to continue to increase investment in water conservancy infrastructure construction during the"14th five year plan"period,and give priority to the construction of flood control projects and water supply projects.

关 键 词：水利基建投资 国民经济 关联度 灰色系统理论 江西省 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]