基于STIRPAT模型的河北省碳达峰情景预测研究  

Prediction of Carbon Peaking Scenario in Hebei Province based on STIRPAT Model

作　　者：任伟 杨嘉宁 郭晓梦 REN Wei;YANG Jia-ming;GUO Xiao-meng(College of Economics,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan Hebei 063210,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学经济学院,河北唐山063210

出　　处：《华北理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期34-41,共8页Journal of North China University of Science and Technology(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：河北省教育厅青年基金项目“人口结构转变背景下河北省住房需求演化机理与供给优化匹配研究”(编号:SQ201102)。

摘　　要：第十三届全国人民代表大会第四次会议批准“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标纲要,提出要积极应对气候变化,制定在2030年前碳排放达峰行动方案,锚定努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。河北省作为京津冀区域的产业承接地,经济发展很大程度上依赖大量的能源消耗,面对的碳减排任务比较艰巨。以河北省作为研究对象,识别碳排放的影响因素,基于2005~2019年河北省11个地级市的面板数据,利用可拓展的STIRPAT环境影响评估模型,对河北省碳达峰时间和峰值进行情景预测。结果表明,河北省碳排放量在强约束情景下会在2025年左右出现峰值。The Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress approved the 14th Five-Year Plan and the Outline of Long-term Goals for 2035,China proposes to actively address climate change,formulate an action plan for peaking carbon emissions by 2030,and anchor efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.As an industrial undertaking in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Hebei Province relies heavily on a large amount of energy consumption for economic development,so the task of carbon emission reduction is relatively arduous.Identify carbon emissions influencing factors in Hebei Province,Based on the panel data of 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2019,the scalable STIRPAT environmental impact assessment model is used to predict the peak carbon peak time and peak time in Hebei Province.The results show that carbon emissions in Hebei Province will peak around 2025 under a strong constraint scenario.

关 键 词：河北省 碳达峰 情景预测 STIRPAT模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]