基于MaxEnt模型的贵州萧氏松茎象适生区预测  

Predicting potentially suitable area of Hylobitelus xiaoi in Guizhou based on the MaxEnt model

作　　者：刘童童 吴跃开 胡凯 Liu Tongtong;Wu Yuekai;Hu Kai(Guizhou Academy of Forestry,Guiyang Guizhou 550005,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省林业科学研究院,贵州贵阳550005

出　　处：《南方林业科学》2023年第3期65-69,78,共6页South China Forestry Science

基　　金：贵州省科技计划项目“危险性林业有害生物萧氏松茎象的防控技术研究”(黔科合支撑〔2019〕2309号)。

摘　　要：萧氏松茎象是贵州省发生危害较大的一种钻蛀性害虫,对其在贵州的潜在适生区进行预测可以为后续该虫的预防提供科学依据。运用MaxEnt模型,结合地理信息系统(GIS)对萧氏松茎象在贵州的适生区进行分析。萧氏松茎象潜在适生区预测结果显示,其在贵州省的适生范围为24.92°—29.22°N,104.94°—109.59°E,总面积达13.89×10^(4) km^(2)。萧氏松茎象在贵州省高、中适生区分布于铜仁市、黔东南州,黔南州和贵阳市除西部的大部分地区及遵义市的东部地区。ROC曲线AUC值为0.993,标准差为0.001,本次构建的模型达到“极好”标准。通过刀切图分析,最冷季度平均温度、最暖季度平均降水量、最湿月份降水量、年均降水量和最冷月份最低温度是影响萧氏松茎象分布的主导环境因子。因此,温度和降水量是影响萧氏松茎象分布的决定性环境因子。Hylobitelus xiaoi is a kind of boring insects with great harm in Guizhou,China.The prediction of its potential suitable areas in Guizhou can provide scientific basis for the prevention of this pest in the future.The potentially suitable areas of H.xiaoi were analyzed by using MaxEnt model and GIS.The results showed that the suitable range of H.xiaoi in Guizhou was 24.92°—29.22°N,104.94°—109.59°E,and the total area is up to 13.89×10^(4) km^(2).The highly and moderately suitable areas are mainly concentrated in Tongren,Qiandongnan Prefecture,Qiannan Prefecture,in addition to most of the western part of Guiyang and eastern region of Zunyi.The ROC,which has an AUC of 0.9993 and a standard deviation of 0.001,indicating that the constructed model meets the"excellent"standard.Through Jackknife test analysis,mean temperature of coldest quarter,precipitation of warmest quarter,precipitation of wettest month,annual precipitation and min temperature of coldest month are the dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution of H.xiaoi.Therefore,temperature and precipitation are the decisive environmental factors affecting the distribution of H.xiaoi.

关 键 词：萧氏松茎象 适生区预测 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：S763.38[农业科学—森林保护学]