山东省农业适水发展水平的模糊综合评价  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation on Agricultural Water-appropriate Development Level in Shandong Province

作　　者：王昕[1] 赵汝鹏 李庆国 张立志 刘丰铭 刘玉玉 WANG Xin;ZHAO Rupeng;LI Qingguo;ZHANG Lizhi;LIU Fengming;LIU Yuyu(Water Resources Institute of Shandong Province,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;School of Water Conservancy and Environment,University of Jinan,Jinan 250022,Shandong,China;Shuifa Planning and Design Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250100,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省水利科学研究院,山东济南250014 [2]济南大学水利与环境学院,山东济南250022 [3]水发规划设计有限公司,山东济南250100

出　　处：《济南大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期395-400,共6页Journal of University of Jinan(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51909105);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021ME229)。

摘　　要：为了破解山东省农业用水短缺与维持粮食安全间的矛盾,明晰山东省农业适水发展中存在的问题,实现以水定产和以水定农业规模结构,通过构建包括水资源、农业和社会经济发展3个子系统、14个指标的农业适水发展水平评价指标体系,提出层次分析法和基于指标相关性的指标权重确定(CRITIC)法主客观组合赋权的模糊综合评价方法对山东省农业适水发展水平进行评价。结果表明,2010—2018年山东省农业适水评价指数由0.466降低至0.444,综合平均指数为0.436,适水发展能力处于中等偏弱水平,在多年间呈现先减弱后增强趋势,农业现状水平仍是制约山东省农业适水发展的主要短板。To solve the contradiction between agricultural water shortage and maintaining food security in Shandong pro-vi nce,clarify the problems existing in agricultural water adaptability-based development in Shandong province,and realize determin ing production and agricultural scale structure with water,an assessment index system for agricultural water adaptability-based development was constructed,which included 3 subsystems of water resources,agriculture,and socio-economic development as well as 14 indexes.A fuzzy comprehensive assessment method based on analytic hierarchy process and criteria importance though intercrieria correlation(CRITIC)algorithm was proposed to evaluate the agricultural water adaptability-based development level in Shandong province.The results show that the agricultural water adaptability-based evaluation index in Shandong province from 2010 to 2018 decreases from 0.466 to 0.444,and the comprehensive average index is 0.436,and the water adaptability-based development capacity is at a moderately weak level,which shows a trend of weakening and then strengthening in many years.The current level of agriculture is still the main shortcoming restricting the agricultural water adaptability-based development in Shandong province.

关 键 词：农业用水 适水发展 主客观组合赋权 层次分析 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：S27[农业科学—农业水土工程]